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Game Recap
SEA1
VGK2
VGK beat SEA 2-1, with the chances close: 2.97 expected goals to 3.12. A. Hill stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 6:58VGKI. Barbashev0.17 xG
- 2nd 7:56VGKW. Karlsson0.15 xG
- 2nd 17:21SEAJ. McCann0.74 xG
Team Stats
SEAVGK
25Shots on goal25
3.12Expected goals2.97
63Shot attempts68
195v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play0/0
14Hits12
22Blocked shots20
0Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways14
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 3.12 xGVGK 2.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 1:53 |
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:40 | 2:07 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:43 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:39 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:48 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 2:06 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 2:16 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 2:22 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:06 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:48 | 1:53 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 22:46 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:42 | 2:07 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 58:03 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:41 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.7, VGK 3.5 | SEA 1, VGK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 25.3, VGK 30.8 | SEA 25, VGK 25 |
| Win chance | VGK 63% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.9 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 0 | 0.92 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.6 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.9 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.