Game Recap: SEA 2, WSH 4, March 9, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA2

FinalSun, Mar 9, 2025Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat SEA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.60 expected goals to 3.43. SEA outshot WSH 32 to 24. C. McMichael led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. McCann had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Lindgren stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	1	0	2
WSH	0	2	2	4

1st 12:37SEAS. Wright0.24 xG
2nd 0:35WSHM. Fehérváry0.08 xG
2nd 2:51WSHD. Strome0.02 xG
2nd 7:23SEAJ. Eberle0.20 xG
3rd 15:44WSHC. McMichael0.08 xG
3rd 18:31WSHA. OvechkinEN0.45 xG

Team Stats

SEAWSH

32Shots on goal24

3.43Expected goals2.60

76Shot attempts50

265v5 shots on goal20

0/4Power play0/1

18Hits19

9Blocked shots21

20Penalty minutes28

19Giveaways15

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.43 xGWSH 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA30 on goal, 2 scored

WSH24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	21:45	3:41
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:55	4:23
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:00	0:03
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:10	3:22
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:05	4:15
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	21:01	4:17
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-4	0	18:50	3:28
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-3	0	17:54	3:43
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	15:13	4:31
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	10:00	0:02
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	7:06	0:00
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12	5:58	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:57	0:04
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	2	24:56	3:21
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	23:17	4:42
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:19	0:02
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:53	0:06
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	10:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	23	20	3	.870	58:46	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McMichael	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	18:13	1:06
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0	17:28	1:58
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	1	7	0	0	4	17:00	0:55
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	15:57	0:00
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	15:48	0:54
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:10	0:00
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	2	15:49	0:56
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	14:04	0:01
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:04	1:04
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	11:30	1:04
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	10:55	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	14	8:41	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+1	2	20:38	0:52
M. Fehérváry	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+1	0	22:59	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:24	1:08
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:15	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	21:15	0:02
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	2	15:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.5, WSH 3.4	SEA 2, WSH 4
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	SEA 24.7, WSH 28.2	SEA 32, WSH 24
Win chance	WSH 64%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.5	6	0.97	1	39%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.4	1	0.79	1	32%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.3	2	0.41	0	13%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	3	0.59	1	18%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	1	0.43	0	18%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.1	6	0.60	0	25%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	2	0.68	2	13%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	1	0.48	0	20%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	4	0.56	0	14%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	0	0.72	1	21%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	1	0.94	1	27%	1
WSH P. Dubois	1.9	2	0.83	0	26%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	3	0.61	2	23%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	2	0.49	0	20%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	3	0.39	1	18%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.6	3	0.46	0	17%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.5	3	0.44	1	17%	1
SEA M. Eyssimont	1.5	1	0.19	0	9%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.4	0	0.37	1	14%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.4	0	0.33	0	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	2	0.24	1	7%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	1	0.36	0	6%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	2	0.54	1	19%	1
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.32	0	12%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.1	0	0.40	0	17%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	2	0.60	1	18%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.28	1	7%	1
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.37	1	17%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	1	0.17	0	3%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	0	0.36	1	7%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.9	2	0.23	0	3%	0
SEA J. Hayden	0.8	0	0.10	0	6%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.25	0	5%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.7	0	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.