Game Recap: SJS 3, ANA 4 (SO), April 1, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

Final/SOTue, Apr 1, 2025Every game that night

ANA4

ANA beat SJS 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 5.07 expected goals to 3.17. M. McTavish led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. McTavish had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. L. Dostal stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SJS	1	0	2	0	3
ANA	3	0	0	1	4

1st 2:04ANAT. Zegras0.02 xG
1st 5:28SJSS. Mukhamadullin0.01 xG
1st 8:13ANAJ. LaCombePP0.03 xG
1st 19:01ANAS. Colangelo0.29 xG
3rd 4:08SJSM. Vlasic0.10 xG
3rd 16:46SJSA. Wennberg0.14 xG

Team Stats

SJSANA

31Shots on goal37

3.17Expected goals5.07

66Shot attempts73

265v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play1/4

16Hits24

15Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways9

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.17 xGANA 5.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS31 on goal, 3 scored

ANA37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	1	1	4	+2	0	20:00	2:05
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	8	3	0	+2	0	18:02	2:05
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	12:02	0:00
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	2	25:07	2:16
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	24:45	2:05
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:23	2:05
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	16:06	0:41
C. Lund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	11:58	0:41
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	11:14	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	10:39	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:23	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:14	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	26:42	0:00
J. Thompson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:40	0:41
M. Vlasic	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:20	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	2	15:16	0:41
L. Carlsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	23:46	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:29	0:46

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	37	34	3	.919	64:42	OT loss
G. Romanov	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McTavish	C	0	3	3	11	2	0	+1	0	20:33	5:28
T. Zegras	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	16:45	1:36
S. Colangelo	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	13:59	1:36
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:24	5:29
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	21:10	3:52
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	17:45	2:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	2	17:23	0:39
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:56	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:36	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	11:23	0:08
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	0	11:11	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	0	10:27	0:07
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	3	1	4	0	0	31:04	5:30
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	23:00	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	18:46	0:06
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	-2	0	18:26	0:08
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:02	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	13:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	31	28	3	.903	65:00	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Trouba SJS First game back in Anaheim, his team until May 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 3.0, ANA 3.6	SJS 3, ANA 4
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	SJS 28.9, ANA 30.9	SJS 31, ANA 37
Win chance	ANA 59%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	3	0.84	0	26%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	3.1	2	0.76	0	32%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.8	3	0.67	0	30%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.5	11	0.85	3	30%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	3	0.87	0	30%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.3	1	0.63	0	21%	0
ANA T. Zegras	2.2	3	0.82	2	26%	1
ANA A. Killorn	2.0	1	0.66	0	27%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	2.0	2	0.43	0	10%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.9	4	0.66	0	20%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	8	0.73	1	21%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.8	2	0.74	0	27%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	3	0.72	1	14%	1
ANA S. Colangelo	1.7	1	0.49	2	25%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.7	2	0.61	0	18%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.7	2	0.24	0	13%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.6	0	0.33	0	8%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.6	0	0.33	0	18%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	2	0.35	0	7%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	0	0.45	0	17%	0
SJS L. Carlsson	1.3	1	0.30	0	8%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.3	2	0.21	1	7%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.3	4	0.34	1	6%	1
ANA D. Helleson	1.3	0	0.35	0	10%	0
SJS N. Gregor	1.3	1	0.20	0	10%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.23	1	6%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.49	1	15%	1
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	2	0.30	1	5%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	0	0.38	0	7%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	1.0	1	0.19	1	5%	1
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	1	0.23	0	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	0	0.21	1	9%	0
ANA J. Harkins	1.0	0	0.19	0	9%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.25	0	11%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.