CBJ beat SJS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.44 expected goals to 2.80. CBJ outshot SJS 34 to 19. J. van Riemsdyk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Werenski had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.1. E. Merzlikins stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CBJ | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 12:11CBJA. Fantilli0.29 xG
- 1st 16:17CBJK. Johnson0.20 xG
- 2nd 6:37CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.05 xG
- 3rd 7:32SJST. Toffoli0.59 xG
- 3rd 17:59CBJJ. van RiemsdykEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.80 xGCBJ 4.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:18 | 3:48 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:38 | 3:04 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:52 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:38 | 3:51 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:27 | 2:53 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 2:06 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:56 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:03 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:31 | 2:04 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:03 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:05 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 3:27 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:15 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:32 | 2:33 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 58:39 | Loss |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:30 | 3:06 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:54 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:06 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 17:10 | 3:06 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:58 | 0:54 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:55 | 3:06 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:54 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 27:46 | 3:08 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:54 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:04 | 0:52 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.9, CBJ 3.7 | SJS 1, CBJ 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 27.6, CBJ 33.7 | SJS 19, CBJ 34 |
| Win chance | CBJ 62% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 4.1 | 7 | 1.19 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 3.1 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.9 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.6 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.4 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.3 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.3 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.1 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.7 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 4 | 0.51 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.