DAL beat SJS 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 3.36. DAL outshot SJS 38 to 27. B. Goodrow had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Oettinger stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 6:24SJST. Toffoli0.13 xG
- 2nd 12:03DALM. Duchene0.08 xG
- 2nd 15:12SJST. Dellandrea0.35 xG
- 2nd 17:12DALR. Hintz0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 3.36 xGDAL 4.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:27 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:40 | 3:26 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 | 3:23 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 3:22 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:58 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:01 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 12:21 | 0:24 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:33 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:01 | 0:22 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:34 | 0:14 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:26 | 3:48 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:07 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 1:02 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 38 | 36 | 2 | .947 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 3:44 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 3:53 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:32 | 2:38 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 4:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 2:36 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 2:42 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 2:37 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:16 | 3:05 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:19 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:05 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:51 | 0:16 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:34 | 2:42 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:53 | 3:46 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:22 | 0:13 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:20 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 64:32 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.2, DAL 4.1 | SJS 2, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 23.8, DAL 34.7 | SJS 27, DAL 38 |
| Win chance | DAL 77% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 3.0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.8 | 3 | 1.20 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.5 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.2 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 4 | 0.96 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.0 | 5 | 0.68 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.0 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 1.8 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 1.7 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.6 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.6 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS M. Benning | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.