Game Recap: SJS 2, DAL 5, November 20, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS2

FinalWed, Nov 20, 2024Every game that night

DAL5

DAL beat SJS 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.40 expected goals to 1.98. DAL outshot SJS 31 to 23. J. Robertson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Walman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Oettinger stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	1	2
DAL	1	2	2	5

1st 15:33DALJ. Robertson0.07 xG
1st 18:44SJSM. GranlundSH0.20 xG
2nd 0:56DALW. Johnston0.20 xG
2nd 10:56DALJ. Benn0.17 xG
3rd 13:25SJSJ. Walman0.15 xG
3rd 18:33DALR. HintzEN0.81 xG
3rd 19:06DALE. DadonovEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

SJSDAL

23Shots on goal31

1.98Expected goals5.40

49Shot attempts65

165v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play0/4

28Hits20

18Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways17

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.98 xGDAL 5.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS20 on goal, 2 scored

DAL31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	16:27	2:42
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	19:28	2:50
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	19:19	3:24
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	18:02	3:05
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	17:45	2:42
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	16:27	2:47
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	15:52	3:12
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	15:00	3:11
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	12:18	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	8:54	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:09	0:00
J. Walman	D	1	0	1	5	0	0	-2	0	22:26	2:35
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	0	0	6	-1	0	19:39	0:23
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:11	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	3	5	2	-1	0	20:10	3:09
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:19	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	4	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	29	26	3	.897	58:35	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	2	3	4	2	0	+2	0	17:57	4:36
W. Johnston	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	+3	0	18:44	3:46
R. Hintz	C	1	1	2	3	2	2	+2	0	18:07	4:23
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	14:54	4:05
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:20	0:04
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:10	3:35
E. Dadonov	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	12:50	0:04
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	16:01	3:39
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:44	3:14
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	15:37	0:04
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	15:15	3:47
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	9:40	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+3	0	21:52	2:32
M. Dumba	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	2	17:07	0:09
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	2	25:20	5:28
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	23:39	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	18:09	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:38	0:34

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	23	21	2	.913	59:56	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason Marchment SJS Faces DAL, his team until May 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.3, DAL 4.1	SJS 2, DAL 5
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	SJS 24.1, DAL 35.9	SJS 23, DAL 31
Win chance	DAL 76%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL W. Johnston	2.8	5	0.79	2	32%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.7	0	0.85	0	30%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.7	1	0.50	0	22%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.6	4	1.00	3	35%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.5	3	0.84	0	13%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.5	1	0.71	1	22%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	4	0.61	0	27%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	3	0.86	2	34%	1
DAL M. Marchment	2.1	2	0.79	0	27%	0
DAL T. Harley	2.1	1	0.59	1	12%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.0	1	0.70	2	16%	1
DAL M. Duchene	2.0	0	0.92	0	32%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	2	0.49	0	20%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.0	5	0.32	1	11%	1
DAL J. Benn	1.9	4	0.79	1	24%	1
DAL E. Dadonov	1.7	2	0.57	1	21%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.6	2	0.42	0	9%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.5	1	0.55	1	17%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.4	0	0.31	0	6%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	0	0.32	0	13%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	1	0.41	0	14%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.2	3	0.28	0	14%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.2	0	0.19	0	10%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.2	0	0.23	1	4%	0
DAL M. Dumba	1.2	2	0.19	1	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.17	0	4%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	1	0.23	0	9%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	3	0.27	0	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	0	0.25	0	12%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	0	0.35	0	12%	0
DAL O. Bäck	1.0	1	0.34	1	13%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.0	0	0.23	0	12%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.8	2	0.15	0	4%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	0	0.25	0	3%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.6	0	0.21	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.