Game Recap: SJS 0, DAL 5, October 5, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS0

FinalMon, Oct 5, 2026Every game that night

DAL5

DAL beat SJS 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.40 expected goals to 1.36. DAL outshot SJS 26 to 13. J. Benn led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Oettinger stopped 13 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	0	0	0
DAL	1	3	1	5

1st 18:51DALM. Heiskanen0.03 xG
2nd 3:17DALJ. Kiviranta0.18 xG
2nd 6:19DALJ. Benn0.26 xG
2nd 16:30DALJ. Robertson0.17 xG
3rd 15:22DALM. Rantanen0.10 xG

Team Stats

SJSDAL

13Shots on goal26

1.36Expected goals4.40

34Shot attempts65

95v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/3

30Hits11

21Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways10

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.36 xGDAL 4.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS13 on goal, 0 scored

DAL25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	-3	0	18:28	2:29
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	-2	0	17:39	2:30
M. Marchment	LW	1	6	1	-3	0	16:12	2:33
M. Misa	C	0	0	1	-1	0	15:22	1:28
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	1	-1	0	15:03	1:37
K. Sherwood	LW	1	7	0	0	0	15:02	1:11
T. Dellandrea	C	0	2	1	-2	0	14:20	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	3	1	0	0	2	14:05	2:22
I. Stenberg	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	13:45	1:30
B. Goodrow	C	0	4	0	-1	0	13:14	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	3	1	-1	0	12:42	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	1	1	4	0	0	11:35	0:00
D. Nurse	D	3	1	3	-2	0	22:16	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	1	2	3	-1	0	20:50	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	2	1	-2	2	19:19	1:22
L. Cagnoni	D	0	0	0	-1	0	19:01	2:39
J. Trouba	D	0	0	3	-2	0	18:50	0:19
S. Dickinson	D	1	1	1	-2	2	16:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	26	21	5	.808	59:49	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+3	0	17:46	4:25
R. Hintz	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+3	0	15:31	4:02
J. Benn	LW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	14:20	1:28
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	+2	0	17:34	5:05
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:44	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:30	0:03
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	11:48	0:01
J. Kiviranta	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:37	0:08
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:56	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	16:45	4:02
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:28	1:57
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:14	1:54
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+3	0	20:37	4:12
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+3	0	21:31	1:48
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	19:23	0:06
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	18:54	0:49
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	17:22	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	13	13	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Marchment13:23W. Smith15:18T. Dellandrea12:41

Line 2I. Chernyshov12:59M. Misa13:21I. Stenberg12:04

Line 3B. Goodrow10:04Z. Ostapchuk9:24C. Graf11:02

Line 4A. Wennberg13:55K. Sherwood12:15T. Toffoli11:43

Pair 1D. Nurse18:57M. Kesselring17:14

Pair 2D. Orlov16:43L. Cagnoni16:01

Pair 3J. Trouba15:50S. Dickinson14:36

DAL

Line 1T. Seguin14:20A. Hyry14:57J. Hryckowian13:14

Line 2M. Rantanen12:29W. Johnston12:11S. Steel12:55

Line 3J. Benn12:33J. Robertson13:02R. Hintz10:59

Line 4O. Bäck11:19R. Faksa10:47J. Kiviranta9:34

Pair 1T. Myers15:29L. Bichsel18:10

Pair 2N. Lundkvist17:22T. Harley18:14

Pair 3E. Lindell16:19M. Heiskanen13:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 14 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DAL J. Robertson	3.5	+128	-140	4	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+125	-155	3	Over
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	-105	-105	3	Over
SJS D. Nurse	1.5	-105	-105	3	Over
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	+125	-190	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.5	+100	-145	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	1.5	-125	-105	4	Over
SJS L. Cagnoni	1.5	+105	-120	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-160	+140	2	Over
SJS M. Marchment	1.5	-110	+100	1	Under
DAL R. Hintz	1.5	-185	+150	1	Under
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-130	+110	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	1.5	+110	-140	3	Over
SJS W. Smith	1.5	-185	+140	0	Under

5 of 33 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+500	-600	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+1700	-2500	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+1200	-5000	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+425	-475	1	Over
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.5	+800	-2500	1	Over
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+135	-160	1	Over
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+625	-1200	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+500	-800	1	Over
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+185	-220	1	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+230	-290	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+700	-700	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+430	-700	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+240	-310	0	Under
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under

4 of 17 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+225	-235	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+340	-350	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+250	-275	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+225	-375	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+300	-380	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+280	-525	1	Over
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-111	-115	1	Over
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+240	-260	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+210	-210	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-125	+100	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+124	-150	2	Over
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+280	-525	1	Over
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+142	-175	0	Under
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+340	-700	0	Under

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DAL J. Robertson	1.5	+172	-185	2	Over
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+285	-275	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+205	-210	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+140	-175	2	Over
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-155	+135	1	Over
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+110	-120	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-245	+180	1	Over
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-150	+125	2	Over
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+165	-220	1	Over
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	-180	+180	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+240	-375	0	Under

0 of 15 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+375	-600	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+340	-750	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+120	-150	Under
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+220	-375	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+175	-190	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+500	-500	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+120	-160	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+188	-275	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+500	-500	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+475	-625	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+160	-185	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+250	-280	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SJS Y. Askarov	23.5	-130	-102	21	Under
DAL J. Oettinger	21.5	-120	-110	13	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	-145	–	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason Marchment SJS Faces DAL, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, DAL 3.6	SJS 0, DAL 5
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	SJS 24.4, DAL 27.9	SJS 13, DAL 26
Win chance	DAL 65%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.7	4	1.28	2	43%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	3	1.02	0	39%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	3	1.20	1	35%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	1	0.87	2	31%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	2	0.90	1	15%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.0	0	0.67	0	22%	0
SJS D. Nurse	1.8	3	0.29	0	8%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	1.8	1	0.40	0	18%	0
SJS J. Trouba	1.8	0	0.30	0	7%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	1.7	3	0.45	0	19%	0
SJS M. Marchment	1.7	1	0.54	0	21%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.7	4	0.71	2	24%	1
DAL T. Seguin	1.6	2	0.58	0	22%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.6	1	0.54	1	17%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	0	0.52	0	13%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.5	0	0.56	0	20%	0
SJS L. Cagnoni	1.4	0	0.30	0	6%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	0	0.44	0	17%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.3	1	0.27	0	14%	0
SJS M. Kesselring	1.2	1	0.20	0	5%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.2	0	0.39	0	14%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.43	0	9%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.40	0	16%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	1	0.48	0	14%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	1	0.28	0	6%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.0	0	0.33	0	6%	0
DAL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.20	1	10%	1
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.20	0	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.9	1	0.27	1	9%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	1	0.10	0	6%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.20	0	8%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.22	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.