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Game Recap
SJS3
FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night
DAL4

DAL beat SJS 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.26 expected goals to 2.93. T. Harley led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Celebrini had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Oettinger stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SJS1203
DAL3104
  1. 1st 7:22SJSM. Misa0.21 xG
  2. 1st 9:16DALR. HintzPP0.14 xG
  3. 1st 15:17DALJ. Benn0.22 xG
  4. 1st 16:51DALJ. RobertsonPP0.17 xG
  5. 2nd 2:47SJSI. Stenberg0.13 xG
  6. 2nd 14:30DALT. HarleyPP0.06 xG
  7. 2nd 17:02SJSW. SmithPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

SJSDAL
23Shots on goal30
2.93Expected goals4.26
52Shot attempts62
145v5 shots on goal21
1/6Power play3/5
21Hits26
11Blocked shots15
12Penalty minutes18
12Giveaways15
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.93 xGDAL 4.26 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdSJS goal, 7:22DAL goal, 9:16DAL goal, 15:17DAL goal, 16:51SJS goal, 2:47DAL goal, 14:30SJS goal, 17:02

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS23 on goal, 3 scored
DAL30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CelebriniC033601+1028:058:01
W. SmithC1123000023:448:01
M. MarchmentLW0111400419:307:14
I. StenbergLW101210+1219:024:28
M. MisaC1011110015:355:11
K. SherwoodLW0001310017:162:52
C. GrafRW0000000015:431:36
T. ToffoliC000220+1015:366:24
T. DellandreaC0001300211:400:00
B. GoodrowC000001009:250:00
A. GaudetteRW000100008:540:00
F. BystedtC000100004:430:00
E. PohlkampD0110110014:442:01
D. NurseD000022-1021:520:00
J. TroubaD000331+1420:290:47
M. KesselringD000012-1017:360:00
S. DickinsonD000001+2015:560:23
D. OrlovD000100+1012:421:12
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Nedeljkovic30264.86758:29Loss
Y. Askarov000–0:00

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. JohnstonC0225210019:096:10
R. HintzC1124000016:084:19
M. RantanenRW0223000415:595:00
J. RobertsonLW1013010017:405:51
J. BennLW101301+1213:521:07
A. HyryRW000010-1216:280:00
S. SteelC000100-1215:270:00
J. HryckowianC000032-1214:172:41
J. KivirantaLW000121-1012:160:00
T. SeguinC0002000012:020:49
R. FaksaC0001310211:460:00
D. PerronLW000020028:260:28
T. HarleyD123222-2024:136:23
E. LindellD000212+1026:140:36
T. MyersD000022-1020:260:21
L. BichselD0001700218:140:00
N. LundkvistD0001110014:420:00
T. TaylorD000101009:360:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Oettinger23203.87060:00Win
C. DeSmith000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini16:30W. Smith12:58M. Misa10:24
Line 2T. Toffoli9:12I. Stenberg12:53T. Dellandrea10:24
Line 3K. Sherwood11:15M. Marchment10:45C. Graf10:16
Line 4B. Goodrow5:09A. Gaudette8:54F. Bystedt4:43
Pair 1D. Nurse16:32M. Kesselring14:49
Pair 2J. Trouba13:57S. Dickinson13:16
Pair 3D. Orlov11:00E. Pohlkamp12:13

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen10:24W. Johnston12:18J. Benn12:03
Line 2T. Seguin10:37J. Hryckowian8:35S. Steel10:24
Line 3A. Hyry11:57J. Robertson11:09R. Hintz10:54
Line 4R. Faksa7:44J. Kiviranta9:01D. Perron7:58
Pair 1E. Lindell16:13L. Bichsel16:16
Pair 2T. Harley13:36N. Lundkvist13:34
Pair 3T. Myers12:51T. Taylor9:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 21 overs hit (52%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
DAL J. Robertson3.5+110-1353Under
SJS M. Celebrini3.5+124-1506Over
DAL M. Rantanen2.5+130-1403Over
DAL R. Hintz2.5+140-1654Over
DAL T. Harley2.5+104-1252Under
DAL W. Johnston2.5-130+1085Over
SJS W. Smith2.5+146-1753Over
DAL A. Hyry1.5-160+1350Under
SJS C. Graf1.5+125–0Under
SJS D. Nurse1.5-105–0Under
DAL D. Perron1.5+105–0Under
DAL E. Lindell1.5+145-1852Over
SJS I. Stenberg1.5+145-1852Over
DAL J. Benn1.5+100-1253Over
SJS J. Trouba1.5-125–3Over
SJS K. Sherwood1.5-110-1101Under
SJS M. Marchment1.5-105-1151Under
SJS M. Misa1.5+115-1501Under
DAL N. Lundkvist1.5+185-2001Under
DAL T. Seguin1.5-120+1102Over
SJS T. Toffoli1.5-130+1042Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 2.4, DAL 3.7SJS 3, DAL 4
Total goals6.27
Shots on goalSJS 23.1, DAL 28.3SJS 23, DAL 30
Win chanceDAL 70%DAL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DAL J. Robertson3.531.29144%1
SJS M. Celebrini3.361.04334%0
DAL W. Johnston2.651.08240%0
DAL M. Rantanen2.331.27238%0
DAL R. Hintz2.240.96233%1
SJS W. Smith2.230.68225%1
DAL A. Hyry2.100.45021%0
DAL T. Harley2.020.65315%1
DAL T. Seguin1.920.66026%0
SJS T. Toffoli1.920.47020%0
SJS K. Sherwood1.810.40018%0
SJS D. Nurse1.700.2607%0
SJS M. Marchment1.710.56122%0
SJS J. Trouba1.630.2906%0
SJS M. Kesselring1.500.2606%0
DAL J. Benn1.530.62121%1
SJS M. Misa1.510.48118%1
DAL D. Perron1.500.47020%0
DAL N. Lundkvist1.310.3808%0
SJS C. Graf1.300.37016%0
DAL J. Kiviranta1.210.26013%0
SJS I. Stenberg1.220.37115%1
DAL J. Hryckowian1.200.39017%0
DAL S. Steel1.210.45015%0
DAL T. Myers1.100.2506%0
DAL E. Lindell1.020.3106%0
SJS S. Dickinson1.000.2205%0
SJS A. Gaudette0.910.21012%0
SJS T. Dellandrea0.910.1908%0
DAL L. Bichsel0.910.2006%0
SJS D. Orlov0.910.2905%0
DAL R. Faksa0.810.2709%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.700.1307%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.