FLA beat SJS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.15 expected goals to 2.72. FLA outshot SJS 54 to 29. M. Tkachuk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Tkachuk had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. S. Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| FLA | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 0:23FLAM. Tkachuk0.10 xG
- 2nd 10:05FLAM. Tkachuk0.04 xG
- 2nd 13:17FLAA. BarkovPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 18:35SJST. ToffoliPP0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.72 xGFLA 4.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:36 | 9:06 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:22 | 8:28 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:55 | 8:52 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:47 | 9:14 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 8:04 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:59 | 4:40 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:42 | 4:52 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:26 | 4:09 |
| E. Cardwell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:08 | 4:48 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:41 | 4:06 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 54 | 51 | 3 | .944 | 57:45 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:19 | 7:11 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 | 7:06 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 7:07 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 6:24 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 9 | 11:35 | 1:11 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 1:27 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 1:34 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:08 | 1:23 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 26:52 | 7:04 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 1:34 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.4, FLA 3.8 | SJS 1, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 24.5, FLA 34.7 | SJS 29, FLA 54 |
| Win chance | FLA 72% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.3 | 7 | 1.32 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.1 | 4 | 1.02 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 4 | 1.22 | 1 | 46% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.6 | 6 | 1.30 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.5 | 5 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 6 | 0.60 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.3 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.1 | 5 | 0.60 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 1.8 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS E. Cardwell | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.