Game Recap: SJS 1, NJD 0, November 10, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

SJS1

FinalSun, Nov 10, 2024Every game that night

NJD0

SJS beat NJD 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.04 expected goals to 2.73. NJD outshot SJS 44 to 27. J. Bratt had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. M. Blackwood stopped 44 of 44.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	0	1
NJD	0	0	0	0

1st 16:21SJSN. Sturm0.02 xG

Team Stats

SJSNJD

27Shots on goal44

2.04Expected goals2.73

54Shot attempts82

245v5 shots on goal32

0/3Power play0/2

19Hits18

25Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways16

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.04 xGNJD 2.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS26 on goal, 1 scored

NJD42 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Sturm	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	7:14	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	6:03	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	20:40	3:55
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:37	2:20
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	18:46	1:44
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:40	3:33
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	17:43	2:30
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:39	3:30
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	17:20	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:41	2:03
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:04	3:42
G. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	5:27	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	22:48	0:43
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	0	22:54	0:14
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	2	21:32	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	2	18:39	3:12
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:10	2:34
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	44	44	0	1.000	59:57	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	8	0	0	0	0	24:05	3:03
N. Hischier	C	3	0	0	0	0	23:27	3:03
J. Bratt	LW	8	1	0	0	0	21:02	2:57
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	-1	0	19:39	1:03
T. Meier	RW	2	1	1	-1	0	19:25	1:50
S. Noesen	RW	2	5	0	0	0	16:26	3:03
O. Palat	LW	1	0	2	0	2	14:28	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	1	1	0	0	0	12:03	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	1	0	2	11:21	0:57
T. Tatar	LW	0	1	1	0	0	7:48	0:57
J. Dowling	C	1	2	0	-1	0	7:04	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	1	3	0	0	0	5:45	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	5	0	1	-1	0	21:31	3:03
B. Pesce	D	2	0	3	0	0	20:20	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	3	0	0	0	0	18:45	0:00
B. Dillon	D	2	2	3	-1	2	18:39	0:02
L. Hughes	D	3	0	1	0	0	18:22	0:55
J. Siegenthaler	D	2	2	1	0	0	16:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	27	26	1	.963	57:00	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTimo Meier NJD Faces SJS, his team until Feb 20232 SOG
Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces NJD, his team until Mar 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.8, NJD 3.8	SJS 1, NJD 0
Total goals	6.6	1
Shots on goal	SJS 25.6, NJD 33.3	SJS 27, NJD 44
Win chance	NJD 66%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	8	1.29	0	40%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.1	2	0.88	0	36%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	5	0.79	0	17%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.8	3	1.12	0	35%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.7	8	1.03	0	30%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	1	0.70	0	31%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.1	5	0.82	0	19%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.1	6	0.52	0	22%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	0	0.66	0	28%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.9	0	0.54	0	21%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.8	2	0.31	0	7%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.8	2	0.68	0	24%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.6	3	0.58	0	9%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.6	1	0.59	0	19%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.5	1	0.49	0	20%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.4	1	0.51	0	19%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.3	2	0.22	1	13%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.3	3	0.29	0	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.3	2	0.30	0	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.2	3	0.34	0	8%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	2	0.22	0	4%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.2	0	0.28	0	15%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.40	0	15%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.1	0	0.32	0	6%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.0	0	0.35	0	14%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	3	0.33	0	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NJD B. Dillon	1.0	2	0.33	0	6%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.9	1	0.22	1	11%	1
SJS G. Smith	0.8	0	0.12	0	6%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	1	0.23	0	11%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	1	0.20	1	4%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.4	1	0.10	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.