Game Recap: SJS 1, NJD 3, October 24, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

SJS1

FinalFri, Oct 24, 2025Every game that night

NJD3

NJD beat SJS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.68 expected goals to 2.08. NJD outshot SJS 29 to 17. D. Hamilton led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Allen stopped 16 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	0	1
NJD	0	2	1	3

1st 2:25SJSW. EklundPP0.18 xG
2nd 0:40NJDD. HamiltonPP0.21 xG
2nd 9:08NJDD. HamiltonPP0.17 xG
3rd 19:13NJDC. BrownEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

SJSNJD

17Shots on goal29

2.08Expected goals4.68

45Shot attempts70

85v5 shots on goal15

1/4Power play2/5

11Hits22

21Blocked shots18

10Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways12

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.08 xGNJD 4.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS17 on goal, 1 scored

NJD29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	-1	0	22:07	3:38
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:19	3:38
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:39	3:38
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	20:35	2:34
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:29	3:38
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:08	2:34
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:08	1:02
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:34	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:21	3:36
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	11:16	3:36
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:54	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4:53	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	24:28	2:17
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	2	24:25	4:17
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	18:46	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:20	1:02
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:03	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	13:59	0:40

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	28	26	2	.929	58:15	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	0	3	3	5	0	1	+1	2	22:03	7:16
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	21:58	7:16
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	21:15	7:16
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	16:42	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:14	7:13
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	2	17:19	1:01
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	14:34	1:01
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:47	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	10:52	0:56
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:38	0:05
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:00	0:54
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:33	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	2	1	3	5	1	3	+1	0	25:51	7:14
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:36	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:24	1:04
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:23	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	16:42	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	12:04	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	17	16	1	.941	59:51	Win
N. Daws	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith15:27M. Celebrini16:35T. Toffoli14:24

Line 2J. Skinner12:16W. Eklund12:56A. Wennberg13:29

Line 3C. Graf9:45A. Gaudette7:31P. Kurashev6:44

Line 4B. Goodrow7:09T. Dellandrea6:52R. Reaves4:53

Pair 1D. Orlov15:26T. Liljegren17:58

Pair 2V. Iorio12:40M. Ferraro14:11

Pair 3V. Desharnais9:51S. Dickinson14:48

NJD

Line 1T. Meier14:50A. Gritsyuk13:33N. Hischier11:54

Line 2C. Brown12:09D. Mercer11:26P. Cotter12:35

Line 3J. Bratt10:05J. Hughes11:48O. Palat9:41

Line 4S. Noesen6:06B. Halonen6:33L. Glendening6:59

Pair 1B. Pesce16:26L. Hughes18:03

Pair 2D. Hamilton13:52J. Siegenthaler13:11

Pair 3B. Dillon11:58S. Nemec11:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces NJD, his team until Mar 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.6, NJD 4.0	SJS 1, NJD 3
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	SJS 24.8, NJD 31.8	SJS 17, NJD 29
Win chance	NJD 71%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.0	2	1.39	1	43%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.3	2	0.96	0	38%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.2	5	0.83	3	19%	2
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	4	0.78	1	26%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	5	1.19	3	39%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	1	0.62	0	29%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	1	1.19	0	30%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	1	0.66	0	26%	0
NJD D. Mercer	2.0	2	0.71	1	30%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.0	0	0.48	0	23%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	0	0.71	0	10%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	3	0.58	1	18%	1
SJS W. Smith	1.8	2	0.63	0	21%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.7	1	0.53	1	19%	1
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.7	2	0.56	0	15%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.7	0	0.44	0	9%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.6	0	0.40	0	7%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.5	0	0.29	0	7%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	2	0.51	0	20%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	3	0.34	0	18%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.1	1	0.35	0	13%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.1	1	0.33	0	6%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	0	0.14	0	4%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.1	3	0.29	0	16%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	0	0.23	0	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.39	0	13%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.19	0	7%	0
NJD B. Halonen	0.8	0	0.17	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	1	0.32	0	6%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.15	0	9%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	1	0.18	0	10%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.11	0	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.4	0	0.10	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.