Game Recap: SJS 1, NYI 4, January 18, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS1

FinalSat, Jan 18, 2025Every game that night

NYI4

NYI beat SJS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.44 expected goals to 1.36. NYI outshot SJS 31 to 19. B. Nelson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Hogberg stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	1	0	1
NYI	0	3	1	4

2nd 8:47NYIM. Barzal0.41 xG
2nd 10:02SJSB. Goodrow0.02 xG
2nd 10:42NYIB. Nelson0.20 xG
2nd 19:33NYIN. Dobson0.02 xG
3rd 1:03NYIR. Pulock0.02 xG

Team Stats

SJSNYI

19Shots on goal31

1.36Expected goals3.44

55Shot attempts73

185v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/1

40Hits37

16Blocked shots20

2Penalty minutes2

27Giveaways23

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.36 xGNYI 3.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS19 on goal, 1 scored

NYI29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Goodrow	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	13:00	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:08	0:59
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	17:35	0:54
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	17:34	1:12
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	16:36	0:59
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:19	1:06
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	2	15:52	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:07	0:47
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	14:45	0:56
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	11	0	-1	0	13:22	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	12:14	1:04
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	9:30	0:01
J. Rutta	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	17:51	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	23:51	0:02
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	22:03	1:20
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	21:45	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	19:23	0:40
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	13:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	31	27	4	.871	60:00	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	18:38	1:03
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	16:35	1:03
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	18:11	1:03
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	0	1	3	+2	0	14:59	0:57
A. Duclair	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	14:36	0:57
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	+2	0	18:21	1:03
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	14:23	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:17	0:57
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:57
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:22	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:06	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	3	7	0	-1	0	11:23	0:00
N. Dobson	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	24:30	1:03
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+1	0	20:47	0:00
R. Pulock	D	1	0	1	2	3	3	+2	2	20:08	0:57
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	23:26	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	16:51	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	12:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Hogberg	19	18	1	.947	60:00	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Duclair NYI Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20241 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.5, NYI 3.4	SJS 1, NYI 4
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	SJS 26.1, NYI 32.9	SJS 19, NYI 31
Win chance	NYI 65%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	3	0.92	1	37%	0
NYI N. Dobson	3.1	3	0.82	1	15%	1
NYI M. Barzal	3.0	3	1.05	2	28%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.9	2	0.78	0	33%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.8	4	0.96	2	39%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	3	0.76	0	24%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.3	0	0.75	1	30%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.3	1	0.47	0	12%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.0	0	0.73	0	17%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	3	0.51	0	20%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.9	1	0.41	1	6%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.7	1	0.63	1	27%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.7	2	0.56	0	20%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.6	1	0.61	0	18%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.6	2	0.42	1	8%	1
NYI A. Romanov	1.6	0	0.36	0	6%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.3	1	0.30	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	2	0.55	0	23%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.2	1	0.19	0	10%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	3	0.28	0	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.0	0	0.29	0	12%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
SJS J. Rutta	1.0	0	0.21	1	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	2	0.24	0	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	0	0.36	0	12%	0
SJS H. Thrun	1.0	1	0.23	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.21	1	10%	1
SJS C. Graf	0.9	0	0.33	0	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	2	0.20	0	9%	0
NYI I. George	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.18	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.