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Game Recap
SJS4
FinalSun, Mar 15, 2026Every game that night
OTT7

OTT beat SJS 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.25 expected goals to 1.99. D. Batherson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Ullmark stopped 19 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SJS2114
OTT1337
  1. 1st 4:05SJSM. Ferraro0.11 xG
  2. 1st 7:33OTTD. BathersonPP0.15 xG
  3. 1st 14:43SJST. Toffoli0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 4:31OTTW. Foegele0.04 xG
  5. 2nd 10:46SJSC. Graf0.08 xG
  6. 2nd 13:40OTTF. ZetterlundPP0.03 xG
  7. 2nd 14:45OTTT. Kleven0.12 xG
  8. 3rd 3:28SJSM. Misa0.08 xG
  9. 3rd 13:08OTTD. Batherson0.27 xG
  10. 3rd 14:50OTTD. Cozens0.11 xG
  11. 3rd 17:43OTTB. TkachukEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

SJSOTT
23Shots on goal24
1.99Expected goals4.25
45Shot attempts67
225v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play2/3
23Hits30
19Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways11
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.99 xGOTT 4.25 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdSJS goal, 4:05OTT goal, 7:33SJS goal, 14:43OTT goal, 4:31SJS goal, 10:46OTT goal, 13:40OTT goal, 14:45SJS goal, 3:28OTT goal, 13:08OTT goal, 14:50OTT goal, 17:43

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS23 on goal, 4 scored
OTT25 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ToffoliC112201-1014:223:01
M. CelebriniC011230-1020:403:01
C. GrafRW1012000017:100:00
M. MisaC1011000011:580:52
W. SmithC000100-1018:123:09
W. EklundLW000212-1017:073:01
K. SherwoodLW000230-1016:360:52
P. RegendaLW000131-2014:220:52
Z. OstapchukC000231+1013:270:07
B. GoodrowC000021+1013:010:07
P. KurashevC000120-1013:000:44
A. GaudetteRW000201+1011:330:07
M. FerraroD1122020020:330:00
S. MukhamadullinD0222040017:020:07
V. DesharnaisD011041+1220:350:00
S. DickinsonD011104+2020:260:00
D. OrlovD000011-2218:473:01
J. KlingbergD000010-2217:070:59
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Brossoit23186.78359:09Loss
A. Nedeljkovic000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. AmadioRW022001+1017:540:00
B. TkachukLW1122300016:264:41
D. BathersonRW2021100014:474:17
W. FoegeleLW112211+2013:170:12
F. ZetterlundLW112350+1012:440:12
D. CozensC101130-1016:194:41
C. GirouxRW0110100010:580:12
S. PintoC0003200019:150:36
T. StützleC0002100216:344:41
N. CousinsC000230-1015:080:00
R. GreigC000110-1013:470:00
L. EllerC000232+2013:420:00
A. ZubD022103+1219:540:00
T. KlevenD101212+1019:310:00
J. SpenceD011011+1017:350:12
T. ChabotD000001+1028:294:41
N. MatinpaloD000121-1015:470:00
D. GilbertD000120-1013:530:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark23194.82660:00Win
J. Reimer000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini16:48W. Smith14:12C. Graf15:01
Line 2K. Sherwood13:56P. Regenda13:05P. Kurashev12:16
Line 3T. Toffoli10:30W. Eklund12:46M. Misa11:06
Line 4A. Gaudette11:26Z. Ostapchuk10:20B. Goodrow10:08
Pair 1V. Desharnais18:23S. Dickinson18:39
Pair 2M. Ferraro16:18S. Mukhamadullin15:48
Pair 3D. Orlov14:30J. Klingberg16:08

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio15:51S. Pinto15:58N. Cousins14:56
Line 2L. Eller12:46W. Foegele12:55F. Zetterlund12:32
Line 3D. Cozens11:30R. Greig11:43B. Tkachuk11:06
Line 4D. Batherson10:30T. Stützle10:41C. Giroux10:17
Pair 1T. Chabot19:50A. Zub17:29
Pair 2J. Spence17:23T. Kleven16:38
Pair 3D. Gilbert13:53N. Matinpalo15:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamWilliam Eklund OTT First game against SJS since he left (his team until Apr 2026)2 SOG
  • Old teamAdam Gaudette SJS Faces OTT, his team until May 20252 SOG
  • Old teamFabian Zetterlund OTT Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20251 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 2.6, OTT 3.7SJS 4, OTT 7
Total goals6.311
Shots on goalSJS 22.4, OTT 31.1SJS 23, OTT 24
Win chanceOTT 66%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.920.92234%1
SJS M. Celebrini3.321.20134%0
OTT T. Stützle2.521.12033%0
OTT D. Cozens2.510.73126%1
OTT D. Batherson2.410.89230%2
OTT T. Chabot2.300.79017%0
OTT S. Pinto2.230.69028%0
SJS W. Smith2.110.78026%0
SJS K. Sherwood2.020.45022%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.020.60225%1
SJS W. Eklund1.920.57017%0
OTT W. Foegele1.820.41220%1
OTT R. Greig1.810.49019%0
OTT M. Amadio1.500.53223%0
OTT C. Giroux1.500.63120%0
OTT J. Spence1.500.4518%0
SJS C. Graf1.420.50119%1
OTT F. Zetterlund1.430.32214%1
SJS P. Regenda1.310.27016%0
OTT N. Cousins1.320.38014%0
OTT T. Kleven1.320.2515%1
SJS M. Misa1.210.48116%1
SJS J. Klingberg1.200.38010%0
SJS A. Gaudette1.220.30017%0
SJS P. Kurashev1.110.40014%0
OTT A. Zub1.110.3527%0
SJS D. Orlov1.100.3908%0
SJS M. Ferraro1.120.2226%1
SJS S. Dickinson1.010.2214%0
OTT L. Eller0.920.2109%0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin0.920.2227%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.810.1403%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.700.1608%0
SJS V. Desharnais0.600.1212%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.620.1106%0
OTT D. Gilbert0.510.2403%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.