Game Recap: SJS 1, PHI 4, December 9, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS1

FinalTue, Dec 9, 2025Every game that night

PHI4

PHI beat SJS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.38 expected goals to 2.04. PHI outshot SJS 30 to 18. C. Dvorak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Dellandrea had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Vladar stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	0	1
PHI	1	2	1	4

1st 11:33SJSC. Graf0.13 xG
1st 18:39PHIC. Dvorak0.28 xG
2nd 3:20PHIC. Grundstrom0.10 xG
2nd 19:48PHIN. Cates0.08 xG
3rd 18:17PHIT. KonecnyEN0.50 xG

Team Stats

SJSPHI

18Shots on goal30

2.04Expected goals3.38

37Shot attempts61

135v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/2

28Hits17

20Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways10

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.04 xGPHI 3.38 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS17 on goal, 1 scored

PHI29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:35	0:42
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:04	1:00
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	19:45	3:17
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	19:22	3:18
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	18:52	2:19
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	16:57	1:42
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	16:29	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:59	2:44
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	15:26	0:43
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:44	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:48	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	8:45	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	1	1	0	4	2	-2	0	22:19	3:15
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	+1	0	21:46	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	2	18:30	0:15
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:26	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	17:12	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	15:55	0:45

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	29	26	3	.897	58:06	Loss
J. Kowalkoski	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	19:01	1:31
T. Konecny	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	2	17:26	2:23
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	18:51	2:21
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:25	1:36
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	15:17	1:42
C. Grundstrom	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:37	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:36	1:37
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:43	2:05
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	12:52	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:47	0:53
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:40	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:46	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	23:15	1:52
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+3	0	23:02	2:16
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	20:34	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:19	1:44
T. Murchison	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:56	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	13:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	18	17	1	.944	60:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith14:18M. Celebrini14:33C. Graf12:38

Line 2P. Kurashev14:56A. Gaudette14:33T. Dellandrea13:58

Line 3A. Wennberg13:34W. Eklund14:05T. Toffoli11:31

Line 4R. Reaves8:45Z. Ostapchuk8:39B. Goodrow9:11

Pair 1J. Klingberg17:20M. Ferraro18:46

Pair 2N. Leddy16:56S. Dickinson16:12

Pair 3D. Orlov13:59T. Liljegren16:36

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak15:22T. Zegras16:06T. Konecny14:33

Line 2N. Cates11:55B. Brink12:37N. Grebenkin10:46

Line 3O. Tippett11:06M. Michkov11:22S. Couturier12:41

Line 4R. Abols11:15C. Grundstrom10:58G. Hathaway11:31

Pair 1J. Drysdale21:05E. Andrae20:15

Pair 2N. Seeler16:24T. Sanheim16:10

Pair 3N. Juulsen12:28T. Murchison13:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayMatvei Michkov PHI Turns 21 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, PHI 3.2	SJS 1, PHI 4
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	SJS 23.3, PHI 29.5	SJS 18, PHI 30
Win chance	PHI 59%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	0	0.76	0	30%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.6	2	1.00	0	29%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	2	0.94	2	30%	1
PHI M. Michkov	2.4	1	0.78	0	27%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.3	5	0.82	1	26%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.0	1	0.61	0	26%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.0	1	0.77	1	25%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.0	2	0.67	0	19%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	0	0.68	0	20%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.9	2	0.61	1	21%	1
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.9	1	0.27	1	15%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	2	0.52	1	12%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	3	0.55	1	19%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	4	0.56	2	19%	1
SJS J. Klingberg	1.5	0	0.48	1	11%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.4	1	0.31	0	5%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	0	0.47	0	9%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.4	2	0.26	1	4%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	0	0.39	0	19%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	4	0.42	1	9%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.3	0	0.45	0	15%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.3	0	0.20	0	11%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.2	4	0.28	0	10%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	2	0.50	0	16%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	3	0.38	1	15%	1
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	0	0.27	0	7%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.14	0	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	2	0.23	0	5%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	1	0.26	0	11%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	2	0.24	0	4%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.12	0	6%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.07	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.