Game Recap: SJS 3, PIT 4 (SO), November 16, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS3

Final/SOSat, Nov 16, 2024Every game that night

PIT4

PIT beat SJS 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.48 expected goals to 1.71. T. Toffoli led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Liljegren had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SJS	0	1	2	0	3
PIT	2	1	0	1	4

1st 1:01PITB. Rust0.17 xG
1st 6:34PITJ. Puljujarvi0.34 xG
2nd 4:19PITS. Crosby0.05 xG
2nd 12:05SJST. ToffoliPP0.07 xG
3rd 6:56SJSM. Granlund0.18 xG
3rd 11:40SJST. Toffoli0.13 xG

Team Stats

SJSPIT

29Shots on goal36

1.71Expected goals3.48

52Shot attempts82

265v5 shots on goal26

1/4Power play0/1

22Hits20

26Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways11

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.71 xGPIT 3.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS28 on goal, 3 scored

PIT36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Toffoli	C	2	0	2	5	0	1	0	0	18:06	4:11
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:54	3:22
M. Granlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	+1	0	20:25	3:03
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	0	0	5	+1	0	19:39	2:12
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:27	3:12
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	12:08	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:03	3:17
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	19:18	3:27
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	18:03	3:11
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	11:41	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	8:18	0:00
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:02	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	24:55	3:06
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	6	1	-2	0	19:55	0:02
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:25	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	19:22	3:24
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	2	18:26	0:03
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	10	8	2	.800	20:00
M. Blackwood	26	25	1	.962	45:00	OT loss

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	21:41	1:44
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	18:55	1:44
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	17:12	1:44
D. O'Connor	LW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	16:43	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	2	15:50	0:00
J. Puljujarvi	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	13:37	0:35
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	12:39	0:00
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	19:28	1:09
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:42	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:28	0:00
S. Poulin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	11:43	0:00
V. Ponomarev	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	8:40	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	25:59	1:44
O. Pickering	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:40	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	2	24:50	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	21:57	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	21:16	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	29	26	3	.897	65:00	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Nedeljkovic SJS Faces PIT, his team until Apr 202526 saves on 29, the win
Old teamErik Karlsson PIT Faces SJS, his team until Apr 20231 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.9, PIT 3.7	SJS 3, PIT 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	SJS 27.6, PIT 36.0	SJS 29, PIT 36
Win chance	PIT 63%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	3.3	6	1.27	1	38%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.9	2	0.82	1	31%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.9	4	0.78	0	29%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	3	0.64	0	25%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.8	5	0.75	2	30%	2
PIT E. Karlsson	2.7	4	0.83	1	17%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.6	1	1.04	1	32%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.4	2	0.90	1	19%	1
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.4	0	0.59	1	23%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.2	2	0.44	1	15%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	2.1	4	0.46	1	21%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.0	0	0.62	1	22%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.9	1	0.39	1	16%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.7	1	0.67	1	19%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.7	4	0.31	1	12%	1
PIT M. Pettersson	1.4	2	0.46	0	5%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.3	0	0.33	0	6%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	2	0.29	0	16%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.3	0	0.24	0	5%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.3	2	0.24	0	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.3	4	0.27	1	12%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.3	1	0.34	0	5%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.2	2	0.31	1	15%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.2	0	0.30	0	14%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	4	0.39	0	8%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.1	2	0.28	0	12%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	2	0.41	0	14%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.1	1	0.30	0	13%	0
PIT J. Ivany	1.0	0	0.15	0	4%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.9	0	0.29	0	5%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
PIT S. Poulin	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.09	0	4%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.7	1	0.27	0	13%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.