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Game Recap
SJS1
STL2
STL beat SJS 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.21 expected goals to 2.42. D. Holloway led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Hofer stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 17:19STLD. Dvorsky0.22 xG
- 3rd 5:04SJSA. Wennberg0.20 xG
- OT 4:57STLD. Holloway0.25 xG
Team Stats
SJSSTL
25Shots on goal23
2.42Expected goals2.21
60Shot attempts49
205v5 shots on goal17
0/1Power play0/2
27Hits27
13Blocked shots21
21Penalty minutes9
22Giveaways12
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.42 xGSTL 2.21 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Wennberg | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:37 | 1:10 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 1:04 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:50 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:56 | 1:14 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:08 |
| I. Chernyshov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:52 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:56 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:46 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:52 | 0:54 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:33 | 1:06 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 11 | 11 | 0 | 1.000 | 29:02 | |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 12 | 10 | 2 | .833 | 35:51 | OT loss |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:54 | 2:53 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:49 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:58 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 1:44 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:19 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:02 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:52 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:12 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 23:30 | 2:42 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:05 | 1:31 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20:49 | 0:54 |
| T. Lindstein | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:04 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 64:57 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1A. Wennberg15:05W. Eklund14:52K. Sherwood15:49
Line 2M. Celebrini17:05W. Smith13:25I. Chernyshov13:39
Line 3T. Toffoli12:03C. Graf14:42M. Misa12:13
Line 4B. Goodrow9:08A. Gaudette10:07Z. Ostapchuk7:31
Pair 1N. Leddy18:17S. Dickinson17:42
Pair 2D. Orlov18:50V. Desharnais17:47
Pair 3S. Mukhamadullin16:04M. Ferraro15:21
STL
Line 1J. Snuggerud16:29D. Holloway14:56D. Dvorsky14:19
Line 2J. Berggren13:54P. Suter13:11O. Stenberg11:45
Line 3P. Buchnevich14:15J. Kyrou12:29J. Neighbours12:20
Line 4N. Walker10:19J. Finley10:49A. Toropchenko10:51
Pair 1P. Broberg18:01L. Mailloux17:12
Pair 2C. Parayko22:22T. Lindstein16:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, STL 3.3 | SJS 1, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 25.3, STL 26.8 | SJS 25, STL 23 |
| Win chance | STL 59% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.3 | 3 | 1.14 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.9 | 3 | 0.96 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.7 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.5 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.3 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 2.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| SJS I. Chernyshov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL T. Lindstein | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL J. Finley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.7 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS N. Leddy | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.