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Game Recap
SJS3
Final/OTThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night
STL2

SJS beat STL 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.58 expected goals to 3.49. T. Toffoli led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. McTavish had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
SJS01113
STL10102
  1. 1st 3:52STLC. McMichael0.10 xG
  2. 2nd 8:48SJST. Toffoli0.19 xG
  3. 3rd 1:39STLD. DubeSH0.09 xG
  4. 3rd 6:05SJSC. Graf0.19 xG
  5. OT 1:03SJSD. Nurse0.19 xG

Team Stats

SJSSTL
27Shots on goal26
2.58Expected goals3.49
51Shot attempts55
215v5 shots on goal19
0/4Power play0/2
37Hits24
14Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways16
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.58 xGSTL 3.49 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTSTL goal, 3:52SJS goal, 8:48STL goal, 1:39SJS goal, 6:05SJS goal, 1:03

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS27 on goal, 3 scored
STL25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ToffoliC112410+1015:514:36
A. WennbergC011100+1020:004:41
I. StenbergLW011200+1217:213:00
M. MisaC011010+2015:142:58
C. GrafRW101321+1014:160:00
M. MarchmentLW000311-1018:074:35
K. SherwoodLW00011010017:574:24
I. ChernyshovLW000000-1015:562:57
W. SmithC000111-2015:333:15
T. DellandreaC0001210012:310:16
Z. OstapchukC0001400012:300:16
B. GoodrowC0000310010:270:16
J. TroubaD0114410023:433:50
D. NurseD101212+1022:380:02
S. DickinsonD0110410015:430:00
D. OrlovD0000230018:200:16
M. KesselringD0002100216:560:05
L. CagnoniD0002010016:063:58
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Nedeljkovic26242.92361:03Win
Y. Askarov000–0:00

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McMichaelLW101200-1016:082:01
M. McTavishC011520+1014:292:00
J. BerggrenRW011000+1012:170:00
D. DubeC1011100011:070:00
R. ThomasC000211-2020:371:54
P. BuchnevichLW0001110019:351:55
D. HollowayLW000211-1017:271:53
J. SnuggerudRW000120-1017:121:53
J. NeighboursLW0002200014:521:52
D. DvorskyRW0002000014:481:59
P. SuterC0002110011:130:00
R. JohnstonLW000151008:020:00
P. BrobergD000210-1024:250:00
C. ParaykoD0000330023:230:00
C. FowlerD000001+1222:431:51
B. CarloD0001210218:380:00
A. JiricekD000120-1214:182:07
J. BarronD0001020014:060:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Hofer27243.88960:52OT loss
J. Binnington000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Marchment13:21I. Chernyshov12:48W. Smith12:07
Line 2A. Wennberg13:04I. Stenberg13:18K. Sherwood12:32
Line 3C. Graf12:31M. Misa12:16T. Toffoli11:15
Line 4T. Dellandrea11:29Z. Ostapchuk10:45B. Goodrow8:24
Pair 1D. Nurse20:15M. Kesselring15:58
Pair 2J. Trouba16:52S. Dickinson13:47
Pair 3D. Orlov16:50L. Cagnoni12:08

STL

Line 1R. Thomas15:01D. Holloway15:23J. Snuggerud14:12
Line 2J. Berggren12:06M. McTavish12:11C. McMichael11:31
Line 3P. Buchnevich13:05J. Neighbours13:00D. Dvorsky12:42
Line 4R. Johnston8:02D. Dube8:19P. Suter7:50
Pair 1C. Fowler18:16B. Carlo16:30
Pair 2P. Broberg18:47A. Jiricek12:04
Pair 3C. Parayko18:28J. Barron12:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 19 overs hit (53%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
STL D. Holloway2.5-130+1142Under
STL J. Snuggerud2.5-125+1121Under
STL M. McTavish2.5+135-1655Over
SJS W. Smith2.5+135-1801Under
STL A. Jiricek1.5-180+1501Under
STL C. McMichael1.5-115-1102Over
STL C. Parayko1.5-125-1100Under
STL D. Dvorsky1.5+105-1302Over
SJS D. Nurse1.5-125-1052Over
SJS D. Orlov1.5+110-1600Under
SJS I. Chernyshov1.5-110-1200Under
STL J. Neighbours1.5+110-1352Over
SJS J. Trouba1.5+110-1304Over
SJS K. Sherwood1.5-140+1201Under
SJS L. Cagnoni1.5+110-1352Over
SJS M. Marchment1.5-120+1053Over
STL P. Buchnevich1.5-118+1101Under
STL R. Thomas1.5-125+1102Over
SJS T. Toffoli1.5-135+1154Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 2.8, STL 3.5SJS 3, STL 2
Total goals6.25
Shots on goalSJS 25.0, STL 27.5SJS 27, STL 26
Win chanceSTL 61%SJS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
STL D. Holloway2.820.96031%0
STL J. Snuggerud2.710.94029%0
STL M. McTavish2.250.63123%0
SJS W. Smith2.110.76026%0
SJS K. Sherwood2.110.45022%0
SJS D. Nurse2.020.3018%1
STL C. McMichael1.920.67124%1
STL R. Thomas1.921.20031%0
SJS T. Toffoli1.940.51222%1
SJS J. Trouba1.940.2917%0
SJS M. Marchment1.830.63024%0
STL P. Buchnevich1.610.68024%0
SJS I. Chernyshov1.600.63023%0
SJS L. Cagnoni1.620.4109%0
SJS M. Kesselring1.520.2105%0
STL P. Suter1.420.47020%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.420.37018%0
STL J. Berggren1.400.49120%0
STL C. Parayko1.300.34010%0
STL J. Neighbours1.320.60024%0
SJS M. Misa1.300.40115%0
STL P. Broberg1.220.50010%0
SJS C. Graf1.230.38116%1
SJS A. Wennberg1.210.55116%0
STL C. Fowler1.200.55010%0
SJS D. Orlov1.100.3305%0
STL D. Dube1.110.29113%1
SJS S. Dickinson1.100.2113%0
STL B. Carlo1.010.1604%0
SJS T. Dellandrea0.910.1907%0
STL J. Barron0.910.2809%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.800.1609%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.810.1007%0
STL R. Johnston0.610.1806%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.