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Game Recap
SJS1
TBL8
TBL beat SJS 8-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.73 expected goals to 1.95. TBL outshot SJS 35 to 21. B. Point led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). N. Paul had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TBL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
- 1st 1:26TBLC. Atkinson0.11 xG
- 1st 7:29TBLC. Geekie0.06 xG
- 1st 8:32TBLB. Hagel0.04 xG
- 1st 8:55TBLB. Hagel0.29 xG
- 1st 17:45TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 4:16TBLA. Cirelli0.08 xG
- 2nd 18:32TBLN. Perbix0.05 xG
- 3rd 0:14SJSA. Wennberg0.18 xG
- 3rd 6:01TBLN. Paul0.10 xG
Team Stats
SJSTBL
21Shots on goal35
1.95Expected goals2.73
53Shot attempts59
185v5 shots on goal31
0/3Power play1/2
24Hits16
14Blocked shots25
2Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways15
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.95 xGTBL 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Wennberg | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 3:45 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:50 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 18:56 | 2:01 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:43 | 3:41 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:50 | 4:31 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:50 | 1:18 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 3:43 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:19 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:19 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:19 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:39 | 1:42 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:39 | 2:19 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:19 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:19 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:39 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:47 | 0:56 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 12 | 7 | 5 | .583 | 19:46 | Loss |
| M. Blackwood | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 40:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:38 | 2:46 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 20:17 | 2:46 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:55 |
| C. Geekie | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:27 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 14:38 | 0:27 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:20 | 2:29 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:07 | 0:18 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:44 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:23 | 2:43 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:30 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, TBL 4.0 | SJS 1, TBL 8 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 26.6, TBL 32.9 | SJS 21, TBL 35 |
| Win chance | TBL 69% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.4 | 5 | 1.28 | 2 | 43% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.9 | 3 | 1.28 | 2 | 38% | 2 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.8 | 2 | 1.29 | 4 | 47% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.7 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.5 | 1 | 0.99 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 2.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 5 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.6 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.9 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.