Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
SJS1
TBL4
TBL beat SJS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.50 expected goals to 1.14. B. Hagel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. James had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 14:37SJST. Toffoli0.32 xG
- 1st 15:10TBLB. Hagel0.11 xG
- 2nd 1:49TBLA. Cirelli0.07 xG
- 2nd 3:17TBLJ. Guentzel0.20 xG
- 3rd 17:41TBLB. HagelEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
SJSTBL
23Shots on goal20
1.14Expected goals3.50
43Shot attempts65
205v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play0/1
29Hits13
18Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes0
11Giveaways15
7Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.14 xGTBL 3.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:11 | 1:51 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:14 | 1:54 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:09 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:00 | 2:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:58 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| P. Regenda | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:02 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:39 | 1:51 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:09 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 19 | 16 | 3 | .842 | 58:32 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 18:50 | 1:35 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:00 | 2:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:38 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:17 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:20 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:20 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 1:40 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:05 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:59 | 1:43 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:22 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1A. Wennberg16:29W. Eklund16:52T. Toffoli15:17
Line 2M. Celebrini15:32W. Smith13:55C. Graf14:37
Line 3R. Reaves12:19B. Goodrow11:32Z. Ostapchuk11:55
Line 4A. Gaudette10:25P. Regenda11:56M. Misa12:36
Pair 1M. Ferraro21:13T. Liljegren20:36
Pair 2D. Orlov20:53J. Klingberg19:20
Pair 3S. Dickinson14:31V. Desharnais12:42
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov15:42B. Hagel15:14A. Cirelli11:36
Line 2J. Guentzel13:59G. Goncalves16:11D. James14:15
Line 3Y. Gourde13:23P. Holmberg14:58Z. Girgensons14:09
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand11:04J. Finley10:16N. Paul12:38
Pair 1D. Raddysh20:46J. Moser20:10
Pair 2D. Carlile15:44M. Crozier18:15
Pair 3C. D'Astous18:40E. Cernak15:40
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.4, TBL 4.2 | SJS 1, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 23.0, TBL 30.5 | SJS 23, TBL 20 |
| Win chance | TBL 76% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.4 | 5 | 1.01 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.3 | 0 | 1.83 | 3 | 41% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.1 | 5 | 1.25 | 3 | 39% | 2 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 1 | 1.24 | 2 | 43% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.6 | 0 | 1.02 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS J. Klingberg | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.5 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.0 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL J. Finley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.5 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.