Game Recap: SJS 3, TOR 2 (OT), December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

Final/OTThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

TOR2

SJS beat TOR 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 2.55. A. Wennberg led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Celebrini had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	0	1	1	1	3
TOR	1	1	0	0	2

1st 14:33TORD. Joshua0.10 xG
2nd 14:32TORA. MatthewsPP0.15 xG
2nd 15:31SJSD. Orlov0.06 xG
3rd 18:35SJSJ. Klingberg0.05 xG
OT 2:49SJSA. Wennberg0.71 xG

Team Stats

SJSTOR

32Shots on goal30

3.93Expected goals2.55

58Shot attempts57

255v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play1/3

22Hits19

13Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways16

2Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.93 xGTOR 2.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS32 on goal, 3 scored

TOR30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	1	2	3	3	2	2	+2	0	22:09	2:44
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	2	21:17	3:04
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	19:02	2:44
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:49	1:17
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	4	2	2	+1	0	16:48	0:56
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:37	1:16
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	15:26	2:46
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	12:50	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	12:28	1:13
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	9	1	0	0	9:33	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	2	22:38	2:45
D. Orlov	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:24	1:15
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:55	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	18:56	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:26	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	30	28	2	.933	62:00	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	21:57	3:55
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	6	0	1	-1	0	22:10	3:54
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	2	15:03	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:26	3:57
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:58	3:07
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:44	0:30
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:51	0:03
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:13	0:30
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	12:04	1:08
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	12:01	0:01
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	10:54	0:30
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	24:37	0:38
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	-1	0	24:14	3:20
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:12	0:04
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	4	4	-1	2	17:44	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:07	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:44	0:43

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	32	29	3	.906	62:49	OT loss
A. Akhtyamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini15:37W. Smith14:30C. Graf13:10

Line 2T. Toffoli11:51A. Wennberg14:57W. Eklund14:22

Line 3J. Skinner11:15T. Dellandrea11:26P. Kurashev13:58

Line 4B. Goodrow9:58A. Gaudette11:02R. Reaves9:33

Pair 1D. Orlov20:09J. Klingberg18:04

Pair 2M. Ferraro18:12S. Mukhamadullin15:56

Pair 3T. Liljegren15:56S. Dickinson13:39

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews16:24M. Knies14:18M. Domi12:18

Line 2W. Nylander15:42D. Joshua14:14N. Roy12:38

Line 3J. Tavares12:38N. Robertson10:56E. Cowan10:24

Line 4C. Jarnkrok10:47S. Laughton11:46S. Lorentz10:04

Pair 1T. Stecher19:44J. McCabe19:27

Pair 2S. Benoit16:37H. Thrun14:50

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson13:01M. Rielly17:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownSam Dickinson SJS Plays in his hometown0 SOG
HometownTyler Toffoli SJS Plays near home (born in Scarborough)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.5, TOR 3.5	SJS 3, TOR 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	SJS 26.0, TOR 29.7	SJS 32, TOR 30
Win chance	TOR 66%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.2	6	1.28	1	48%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	2	1.08	0	39%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	3	1.23	2	42%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.9	6	0.92	1	27%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.4	1	0.93	0	31%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.3	3	0.57	0	24%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.2	1	0.69	0	23%	0
TOR E. Cowan	2.1	2	0.66	0	22%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	4	0.63	1	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	0	0.73	1	12%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.8	4	0.44	0	20%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	1	0.62	0	17%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	1	0.60	0	11%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	1	0.48	2	11%	1
SJS A. Gaudette	1.5	1	0.36	0	18%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	3	0.41	0	20%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.5	2	0.53	0	19%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.4	1	0.43	0	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.4	0	0.40	0	16%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	1	0.42	1	8%	1
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.3	2	0.25	0	9%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.3	2	0.24	0	7%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	4	0.36	0	15%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	3	0.45	3	15%	1
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	0	0.47	1	8%	0
TOR H. Thrun	1.2	2	0.28	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	0	0.25	0	6%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	0	0.13	0	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	2	0.34	0	16%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	2	0.37	1	17%	1
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.25	0	5%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.14	0	8%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.