Game Recap: SJS 5, UTA 4 (OT), October 28, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS5

Final/OTMon, Oct 28, 2024Every game that night

UTA4

SJS beat UTA 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.69 expected goals to 2.33. SJS outshot UTA 46 to 23. M. Granlund led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Toffoli had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. M. Blackwood stopped 19 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	0	1	3	1	5
UTA	2	2	0	0	4

1st 11:00UTAD. Guenther0.14 xG
1st 16:24UTAM. Maccelli0.27 xG
2nd 9:12SJSF. Zetterlund0.16 xG
2nd 10:38UTAM. Maccelli0.17 xG
2nd 19:36UTAM. Sergachev0.03 xG
3rd 15:28SJSF. Zetterlund0.18 xG
3rd 15:53SJSM. Granlund0.04 xG
3rd 17:18SJST. Toffoli0.24 xG
OT 1:26SJSA. WennbergPP0.66 xG

Team Stats

SJSUTA

46Shots on goal23

4.69Expected goals2.33

78Shot attempts55

345v5 shots on goal20

1/4Power play0/2

29Hits21

14Blocked shots18

9Penalty minutes13

8Giveaways15

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 4.69 xGUTA 2.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS44 on goal, 5 scored

UTA22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	2	3	3	2	0	+2	0	22:40	4:05
A. Wennberg	C	1	1	2	6	0	0	+4	0	21:23	4:07
T. Toffoli	C	1	1	2	8	0	0	+3	2	19:30	4:06
F. Zetterlund	LW	2	0	2	3	3	0	+4	0	17:09	2:00
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	23:31	4:07
D. Gushchin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:02	1:46
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	-2	0	18:17	1:59
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	18:06	2:02
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	10:42	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	9:37	0:01
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	5:34	0:00
G. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	5	3:42	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	3	3	4	1	1	+2	0	24:00	4:09
H. Thrun	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	0	15:13	1:50
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	4	6	1	-2	0	24:26	0:15
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	23:36	0:01
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	0	16:20	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	23	19	4	.826	60:45	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Maccelli	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	13:57	1:47
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	2	19:46	2:11
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	18:58	2:16
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	2	18:26	1:45
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:04	2:29
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	16:02	1:25
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	15:27	2:07
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:06	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-3	0	13:30	0:06
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	13:17	1:40
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	11:44	0:04
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	5	7:12	0:02
I. Cole	D	0	2	2	2	0	4	+1	0	22:05	0:08
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	+1	0	15:40	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	26:35	2:27
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	22:42	1:25
M. Lamoureux	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	17:52	0:08
R. Bortuzzo	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	12:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	46	41	5	.891	61:26	OT loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, UTA 4.0	SJS 5, UTA 4
Total goals	6.7	9
Shots on goal	SJS 25.8, UTA 33.1	SJS 46, UTA 23
Win chance	UTA 70%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA C. Keller	3.1	2	1.23	1	39%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.7	3	0.89	1	32%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	8	0.73	2	30%	1
UTA B. Hayton	2.3	0	0.62	0	23%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	2.2	2	0.62	0	26%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.2	4	0.84	1	11%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.1	2	1.02	1	29%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.0	3	0.81	3	17%	1
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	3	0.48	2	19%	2
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	2	0.66	1	23%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	2	0.58	0	26%	0
SJS J. Walman	1.9	4	0.33	3	15%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.7	1	0.55	0	11%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.7	1	0.64	1	19%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.5	3	0.69	2	17%	2
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.4	0	0.58	0	17%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.2	0	0.22	0	12%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.22	0	15%	0
SJS D. Gushchin	1.2	2	0.31	1	13%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.2	4	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.1	2	0.26	0	14%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	3	0.21	0	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.22	0	8%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	6	0.39	2	13%	1
UTA I. Cole	1.0	2	0.26	2	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	2	0.29	0	12%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.9	0	0.44	0	15%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	3	0.26	0	7%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
SJS G. Smith	0.8	2	0.14	0	6%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.8	0	0.24	2	6%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	1	0.19	1	5%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.7	0	0.27	0	13%	0
SJS M. Benning	0.7	2	0.20	0	2%	0
UTA R. Bortuzzo	0.6	0	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.