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Game Recap
SJS1
UTA2
UTA beat SJS 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.98 expected goals to 1.83. W. Smith had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. K. Vejmelka stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 0:58SJSF. Zetterlund0.18 xG
- 2nd 5:57UTAN. Schmaltz0.11 xG
- 3rd 18:28UTAB. Hayton0.06 xG
Team Stats
SJSUTA
19Shots on goal26
1.83Expected goals2.98
40Shot attempts67
175v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/1
11Hits23
22Blocked shots10
2Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways15
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.83 xGUTA 2.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:48 | 2:15 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:34 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:05 | 1:20 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:48 | 2:18 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:34 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:39 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 2:15 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:41 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:33 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:39 | 1:09 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:51 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 58:43 | Loss |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 1:11 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 1:11 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:52 | 0:49 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:49 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:11 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:49 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:11 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:49 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:06 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:18 | 1:11 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:49 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 59:27 | Win |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.8, UTA 3.8 | SJS 1, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 27.0, UTA 32.8 | SJS 19, UTA 26 |
| Win chance | UTA 66% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 2.9 | 2 | 1.15 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.7 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.3 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.1 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.6 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.