Game Recap: SJS 3, VAN 4, December 23, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalMon, Dec 23, 2024Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat SJS 4-3, with the chances close: 2.57 expected goals to 2.67. E. Pettersson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Rutta had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. T. Demko stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	2	3
VAN	1	3	0	4

1st 11:36SJSW. EklundPP0.18 xG
1st 14:10VANB. Boeser0.32 xG
2nd 16:42VANK. Sherwood0.04 xG
2nd 17:08VANE. Pettersson0.17 xG
2nd 17:52VANE. PetterssonPP0.14 xG
3rd 4:21SJSC. Ceci0.02 xG
3rd 19:54SJSL. Kunin0.18 xG

Team Stats

SJSVAN

29Shots on goal24

2.67Expected goals2.57

71Shot attempts45

195v5 shots on goal14

1/3Power play1/5

18Hits27

7Blocked shots22

22Penalty minutes30

19Giveaways17

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.67 xGVAN 2.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS28 on goal, 3 scored

VAN24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	2	2	5	0	1	0	0	24:11	3:55
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	27:08	4:04
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:00	3:59
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	17:53	2:37
L. Kunin	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	17:41	0:14
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	7:39	1:57
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	21:17	3:54
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	5	12:42	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:32	0:42
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:35	0:30
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	7	10:23	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	6:49	0:00
C. Ceci	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	22:03	0:17
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	2	20:23	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:18	0:30
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	4	16:15	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:35	0:16
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	15:22	0:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	24	20	4	.833	57:30	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	14:56	6:56
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	22:42	6:34
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	4	5	4	0	0	21:01	6:57
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:18	6:55
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	4	16:19	0:12
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	12:58	1:16
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	11:44	0:09
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	11:26	1:05
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:50	1:00
P. Di Giuseppe	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	12:23	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	12:11	0:24
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	17	9:30	0:28
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	24:45	7:51
V. Desharnais	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	16:08	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	21:06	0:50
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	17:45	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	16:41	0:02
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	16:11	0:21

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	29	26	3	.897	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKiefer Sherwood SJS First game back in Vancouver, his team until Jan 20261 G, 2 SOG
HometownMacklin Celebrini SJS Plays near home (born in North Vancouver)2 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, VAN 3.8	SJS 3, VAN 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	SJS 26.1, VAN 30.6	SJS 29, VAN 24
Win chance	VAN 67%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN Q. Hughes	3.0	1	1.27	2	16%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	5	0.81	2	26%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.7	4	0.91	1	29%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	3	0.62	1	26%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.3	2	0.76	1	33%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	4	1.04	2	33%	2
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	1	0.89	1	33%	1
SJS M. Granlund	2.1	2	0.81	1	17%	0
VAN J. Miller	2.0	4	1.09	1	31%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	2	0.58	1	24%	1
SJS F. Zetterlund	1.9	1	0.52	1	20%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.8	0	0.54	0	23%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.5	2	0.60	1	17%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.3	1	0.36	0	5%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.3	0	0.28	0	9%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.3	0	0.51	0	20%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	1	0.46	1	13%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.2	0	0.35	0	14%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.2	3	0.31	1	15%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	1	0.41	0	14%	0
VAN P. Giuseppe	1.1	2	0.30	0	13%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	0	0.29	0	7%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	2	0.33	1	17%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.0	2	0.26	1	6%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	2	0.18	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.24	0	11%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	4	0.19	0	5%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
SJS N. Kovalenko	0.8	1	0.35	0	11%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.8	0	0.20	0	6%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.8	0	0.41	0	18%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.7	1	0.16	0	6%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.7	0	0.16	1	2%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.6	2	0.18	0	4%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.6	0	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.