Game Recap: SJS 2, VGK 7, December 23, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS2

FinalTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

VGK7

VGK beat SJS 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.50 expected goals to 1.77. M. Marner led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Marner had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Hart stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	1	1	2
VGK	5	1	1	7

1st 1:46VGKB. Howden0.25 xG
1st 9:07VGKM. MarnerPP0.05 xG
1st 11:37VGKC. Sissons0.12 xG
1st 14:57VGKT. Hertl0.22 xG
1st 18:34VGKM. Stone0.30 xG
2nd 6:49SJSM. Celebrini0.09 xG
2nd 18:50VGKR. Smith0.14 xG
3rd 5:22VGKM. Marner0.28 xG
3rd 8:04SJSC. Graf0.04 xG

Team Stats

SJSVGK

23Shots on goal26

1.77Expected goals4.50

44Shot attempts48

235v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play1/4

25Hits13

6Blocked shots9

8Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways17

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.77 xGVGK 4.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS23 on goal, 2 scored

VGK26 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Toffoli	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	15:24	0:10
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:04	0:10
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	17:38	0:10
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:26	0:00
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	5	1	1	-1	4	19:09	0:10
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:50	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:37	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	0	11:38	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	11:20	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	10:41	0:00
E. Cardwell	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-4	0	9:48	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-4	0	9:02	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	-2	0	21:22	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	20:44	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	20:02	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:58	0:10
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:46	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	16	12	4	.750	14:57	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	10	7	3	.700	45:03

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	17:26	3:00
M. Marner	RW	2	0	2	5	1	0	+2	0	16:53	3:49
M. Stone	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	15:48	3:56
R. Smith	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	13:56	0:19
B. Bowman	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	12:31	0:19
I. Barbashev	LW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	11:34	0:00
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:52	3:59
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	15:47	1:20
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:19	0:59
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:16	0:54
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:03	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:13	1:06
K. Korczak	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	0	20:19	1:11
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	21:23	4:02
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	20:29	0:19
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	4	3	+2	0	19:26	0:48
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	17:30	0:24
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	17:15	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini18:34I. Chernyshov15:50C. Graf14:20

Line 2T. Toffoli15:14A. Wennberg15:10W. Eklund18:31

Line 3R. Reaves11:20B. Goodrow11:21Z. Ostapchuk10:41

Line 4J. Skinner9:02E. Cardwell9:29T. Dellandrea8:08

Pair 1J. Klingberg18:46D. Orlov18:11

Pair 2M. Ferraro17:10S. Mukhamadullin17:10

Pair 3N. Leddy17:33S. Dickinson16:55

VGK

Line 1A. Holtz17:07P. Dorofeyev14:15T. Hertl13:43

Line 2B. Saad13:10K. Kolesar13:22C. Sissons12:53

Line 3R. Smith12:48B. Howden13:36B. Bowman12:12

Line 4I. Barbashev11:34M. Marner12:28M. Stone10:49

Pair 1B. McNabb15:57K. Korczak18:06

Pair 2B. Hutton19:18N. Hanifin16:23

Pair 3J. Lauzon18:38Z. Whitecloud17:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTomas Hertl VGK Faces SJS, his team until Jan 20241 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.3, VGK 3.6	SJS 2, VGK 7
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	SJS 23.0, VGK 33.0	SJS 23, VGK 26
Win chance	VGK 70%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.4	5	0.77	2	37%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.2	2	1.09	1	30%	1
VGK T. Hertl	3.0	3	0.89	1	33%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	2.6	0	0.61	1	13%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	1	0.66	2	28%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.5	2	1.15	2	32%	1
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	5	0.64	0	19%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.1	5	1.30	2	31%	2
VGK B. Saad	1.8	1	0.40	1	20%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.7	0	0.43	0	20%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.7	0	0.69	2	25%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.7	1	0.31	0	8%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.6	0	0.53	2	20%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.6	1	0.49	1	23%	1
VGK R. Smith	1.6	1	0.47	2	19%	1
SJS J. Klingberg	1.5	3	0.47	0	11%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.5	1	0.27	0	14%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	1	0.46	1	18%	1
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	1	0.36	0	7%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.50	1	15%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.2	0	0.31	2	5%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	0	0.26	0	5%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	3	0.28	1	11%	1
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	0	0.23	0	8%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.25	0	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	1	0.18	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	2	0.26	1	10%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	1	0.15	0	4%	0
SJS E. Cardwell	0.9	1	0.21	0	12%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.8	0	0.13	0	4%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	2	0.21	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	2	0.15	0	8%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	0	0.19	0	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.11	0	6%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	1	0.08	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.