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Game Recap
SJS2
Final/OTTue, Dec 3, 2024Every game that night
WSH1

SJS beat WSH 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.07 expected goals to 2.43. A. Protas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. M. Blackwood stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
SJS10012
WSH01001
  1. 1st 19:00SJST. Toffoli0.04 xG
  2. 2nd 13:02WSHN. Dowd0.18 xG
  3. OT 0:39SJSW. EklundPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

SJSWSH
31Shots on goal28
3.07Expected goals2.43
72Shot attempts67
275v5 shots on goal23
1/4Power play0/3
30Hits22
19Blocked shots24
6Penalty minutes18
23Giveaways20
1Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.07 xGWSH 2.43 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTSJS goal, 19:00WSH goal, 13:02SJS goal, 0:39

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS31 on goal, 2 scored
WSH27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. GranlundC0112100020:113:54
W. EklundLW1014110019:422:30
M. CelebriniC0114100218:583:41
T. ToffoliC1013200016:043:13
A. WennbergC0000020218:143:50
F. ZetterlundLW0004400018:131:41
L. KuninC0002220015:390:00
W. SmithC0001020014:321:38
K. KostinC0003300013:581:37
T. DellandreaC000021009:460:00
N. SturmC000011008:380:00
C. GrundstromRW000130028:240:00
J. WalmanD0000120024:373:12
C. CeciD0001020022:490:00
M. FerraroD0001410019:270:00
T. LiljegrenD0004030019:001:40
J. RuttaD0001210015:010:00
H. ThrunD0000310014:040:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Blackwood28271.96459:58Win
V. Vanecek000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. DowdC10122301013:260:00
I. MiroshnichenkoLW011010008:321:37
C. McMichaelLW000110-1020:483:12
D. StromeC0000010020:013:04
T. WilsonRW0000520419:082:50
A. ProtasLW0005120016:370:00
P. DuboisC0001000015:451:31
L. EllerC0001110213:570:06
T. RaddyshRW0001000013:191:23
A. MangiapaneLW0001000012:501:27
B. DuhaimeLW000000+1011:160:00
H. LapierreC000010009:590:00
M. FehérváryD011314+1018:240:00
J. ChychrunD0004240223:013:02
J. CarlsonD0002020021:012:59
T. van RiemsdykD0002010019:380:00
M. RoyD0004240019:110:11
R. SandinD000150-1018:471:33
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson31292.93560:39OT loss
C. Lindgren000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 2.7, WSH 3.7SJS 2, WSH 1
Total goals6.33
Shots on goalSJS 26.0, WSH 31.5SJS 31, WSH 28
Win chanceWSH 66%SJS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SJS M. Celebrini2.640.77126%0
WSH J. Carlson2.620.81016%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.540.64018%0
WSH C. McMichael2.510.72030%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.430.64127%1
WSH T. Wilson2.300.74030%0
SJS J. Walman2.100.41015%0
SJS F. Zetterlund2.140.58022%0
SJS M. Granlund1.920.78117%0
WSH D. Strome1.901.06030%0
WSH P. Dubois1.810.71025%0
WSH A. Protas1.750.61016%0
WSH A. Mangiapane1.610.54022%0
SJS W. Eklund1.640.68118%1
WSH M. Roy1.640.3708%0
WSH T. Raddysh1.410.37016%0
WSH L. Eller1.410.39016%0
WSH B. Duhaime1.300.29014%0
SJS W. Smith1.310.47016%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk1.320.3104%0
SJS L. Kunin1.220.32016%0
SJS C. Grundstrom1.210.21011%0
SJS T. Liljegren1.240.3108%0
WSH R. Sandin1.210.4809%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.200.44015%0
SJS C. Ceci1.210.2606%0
WSH N. Dowd1.220.42120%1
SJS M. Ferraro1.110.2005%0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko1.100.34112%0
WSH M. Fehérváry1.130.3018%0
WSH H. Lapierre1.000.42013%0
SJS T. Dellandrea1.000.2208%0
SJS J. Rutta0.910.1705%0
SJS N. Sturm0.800.23010%0
SJS K. Kostin0.830.31013%0
SJS H. Thrun0.700.2004%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.