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Game Recap
SJS3
WSH2
SJS beat WSH 3-2, with the chances close: 2.79 expected goals to 2.29. C. Graf led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Ferraro had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 10:58WSHD. StromePP0.13 xG
- 2nd 13:27SJSZ. Ostapchuk0.21 xG
- 2nd 14:53SJSC. Graf0.12 xG
- 2nd 16:13SJSP. Regenda0.16 xG
- 3rd 9:11WSHR. Leonard0.19 xG
Team Stats
SJSWSH
26Shots on goal23
2.79Expected goals2.29
53Shot attempts49
235v5 shots on goal17
0/3Power play1/2
16Hits18
10Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways12
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.79 xGWSH 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Graf | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Regenda | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:46 | 2:08 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:07 | 4:45 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:38 | 4:06 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 | 3:55 |
| I. Chernyshov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 2:04 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:54 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:46 | 3:52 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 1:05 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:25 | 2:21 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:46 | 3:39 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:01 |
| V. Iorio | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:56 | 0:10 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:19 | 2:59 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:21 | 3:12 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:59 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:13 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 2:44 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:40 | 0:28 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:28 | 0:13 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 28:19 | 3:07 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25:45 | 0:05 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 57:01 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1M. Celebrini17:26C. Graf17:08I. Chernyshov13:35
Line 2A. Wennberg11:50W. Eklund13:32T. Toffoli9:54
Line 3A. Gaudette11:42M. Misa8:53P. Regenda11:22
Line 4B. Goodrow10:10Z. Ostapchuk9:19R. Reaves8:21
Pair 1V. Iorio17:17S. Dickinson16:04
Pair 2D. Orlov16:56J. Klingberg15:59
Pair 3M. Ferraro15:08T. Liljegren14:29
WSH
Line 1A. Ovechkin15:10D. Strome16:06E. Frank12:05
Line 2A. Beauvillier12:48C. McMichael12:21A. Protas16:05
Line 3N. Dowd13:02B. Leason9:12R. Leonard13:13
Line 4S. Milano7:15H. Lapierre6:30B. Duhaime9:26
Pair 1J. Chychrun20:28M. Roy17:18
Pair 2J. Carlson21:57M. Fehérváry13:59
Pair 3R. Sandin16:05D. McIlrath6:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.8, WSH 3.9 | SJS 3, WSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 25.9, WSH 31.6 | SJS 26, WSH 23 |
| Win chance | WSH 67% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.7 | 6 | 1.24 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.5 | 3 | 1.16 | 1 | 45% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 3.0 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.7 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.7 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.6 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.5 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.3 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.2 | 3 | 1.10 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.2 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 2.2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| SJS I. Chernyshov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS J. Klingberg | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH B. Leason | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS V. Iorio | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.