Game Recap: STL 4, ANA 3, March 7, 2025

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalFri, Mar 7, 2025Every game that night

ANA3

STL beat ANA 4-3, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 2.34. B. Schenn led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Binnington stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	1	2	4
ANA	1	0	2	3

1st 2:37STLA. Toropchenko0.04 xG
1st 14:48ANAS. ColangeloPP0.12 xG
2nd 10:49STLB. Schenn0.13 xG
3rd 5:21STLZ. Bolduc0.19 xG
3rd 16:58ANAF. Vatrano0.16 xG
3rd 18:13STLB. SchennEN0.77 xG
3rd 19:17ANAA. Killorn0.05 xG

Team Stats

STLANA

22Shots on goal24

2.49Expected goals2.34

48Shot attempts66

195v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play1/4

17Hits29

23Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways14

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.49 xGANA 2.34 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL22 on goal, 4 scored

ANA23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	2	0	2	2	0	2	+1	0	15:19	0:37
A. Toropchenko	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	2	13:10	0:00
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:47	1:24
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:10	1:26
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	11:32	0:35
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:53	1:25
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	19:28	1:23
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	14:16	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:18	0:32
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:16	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	13:15	0:34
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+2	2	12:46	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	21:09	1:22
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	0	23:11	0:38
N. Leddy	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+3	2	16:56	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	22:36	0:04
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	0	18:47	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	24	21	3	.875	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18:02	2:40
F. Vatrano	RW	1	1	2	4	2	1	0	0	17:07	2:38
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:44	3:59
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	16:52	2:39
S. Colangelo	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	0	15:48	2:42
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	17:20	3:59
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:14	3:57
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:52	2:38
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:23	0:59
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:20	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:00	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	2	23:16	3:46
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:55	2:51
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	19:26	0:17
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	4	4	-2	0	18:15	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	15:12	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	14:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	21	18	3	.857	58:36	Loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason McTavish STL First game back in Anaheim, his team until May 20261 A, 1 SOG
Old teamCam Fowler STL Faces ANA, his team until Dec 20242 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, ANA 2.7	STL 4, ANA 3
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	STL 29.4, ANA 27.0	STL 22, ANA 24
Win chance	STL 57%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.0	4	0.64	2	29%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	2	0.78	1	31%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.4	2	0.66	1	25%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.2	0	0.99	0	26%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.2	1	0.77	2	27%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.2	1	0.64	1	25%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.2	1	0.82	0	27%	0
ANA T. Zegras	2.1	0	0.64	0	22%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.9	3	0.44	0	16%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.9	1	0.46	1	8%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.9	0	0.53	1	11%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.9	2	0.66	2	22%	2
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	3	0.55	1	23%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.8	1	0.58	0	18%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.7	0	0.50	0	24%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.6	3	0.45	1	18%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	1	0.29	0	7%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.5	2	0.31	1	16%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.5	3	0.34	0	9%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	2	0.28	0	6%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	3	0.48	0	20%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.4	0	0.26	0	5%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.44	2	9%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.3	2	0.31	0	10%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	2	0.23	2	11%	1
ANA B. Leason	1.2	0	0.26	0	12%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.2	0	0.37	0	13%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.26	0	13%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	2	0.19	0	6%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	2	0.23	0	9%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	0	0.16	0	6%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.9	0	0.25	1	3%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.