Game Recap: STL 4, ANA 0, March 8, 2026

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalSun, Mar 8, 2026Every game that night

ANA0

STL beat ANA 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 5.33 expected goals to 2.48. STL outshot ANA 35 to 22. J. Snuggerud led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Kyrou had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Hofer stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	3	1	4
ANA	0	0	0	0

2nd 4:22STLJ. Kyrou0.07 xG
2nd 10:07STLJ. DrouinPP0.09 xG
2nd 12:11STLJ. Snuggerud0.11 xG
3rd 15:58STLP. SuterEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

STLANA

35Shots on goal22

5.33Expected goals2.48

65Shot attempts57

275v5 shots on goal16

1/3Power play0/5

8Hits20

14Blocked shots16

27Penalty minutes14

15Giveaways18

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 5.33 xGANA 2.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL31 on goal, 4 scored

ANA21 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	14:58	3:33
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	3	0	4	+1	0	19:46	3:28
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	17:43	3:28
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:09	2:32
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	14:14	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	13:43	2:32
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	13:16	2:25
J. Drouin	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:15	3:39
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	2	14:18	2:37
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	13:10	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	11:02	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:52	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	27:04	3:43
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:11	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	15:44	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	20:16	2:23
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	18:21	0:05
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	17	11:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	22	22	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Sennecke	RW	3	1	0	-2	0	22:41	7:21
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	0	-2	0	18:56	7:44
M. Granlund	C	1	1	0	-2	0	18:44	4:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	1	0	-1	0	18:09	2:23
L. Carlsson	C	2	1	1	-2	0	18:05	6:00
C. Kreider	LW	2	1	0	-2	0	17:06	7:33
R. Poehling	C	1	1	1	0	0	16:08	0:01
M. McTavish	C	0	3	0	0	0	12:04	1:56
J. Viel	LW	0	4	1	0	0	11:58	0:01
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	1	0	0	10:19	0:44
T. Washe	C	3	1	0	0	0	9:27	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	1	0	0	14	9:01	0:01
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	2	-1	0	24:33	8:15
J. Trouba	D	3	0	2	0	0	23:19	2:26
O. Zellweger	D	2	0	3	0	0	18:35	0:08
P. Mintyukov	D	2	0	3	-2	0	16:59	1:40
I. Moore	D	1	2	0	-2	0	15:09	0:00
R. Gudas	D	2	1	2	0	0	12:44	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Husso	34	31	3	.912	57:58	Loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1D. Holloway11:15J. Snuggerud10:37R. Thomas11:45

Line 2J. Kyrou10:28J. Neighbours10:39D. Dvorsky10:46

Line 3P. Buchnevich10:28P. Suter10:04J. Drouin9:02

Line 4A. Toropchenko9:55J. Finley7:57O. Sundqvist7:16

Pair 1P. Broberg16:12M. Kessel13:24

Pair 2C. Fowler15:32L. Mailloux12:33

Pair 3J. Holl12:34T. Tucker10:08

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund11:03B. Sennecke12:09A. Killorn12:36

Line 2J. Viel11:57R. Johnston9:00T. Washe7:34

Line 3F. Vatrano9:35R. Poehling12:36M. McTavish9:46

Line 4L. Carlsson8:40C. Gauthier7:54C. Kreider7:17

Pair 1J. Trouba15:06J. LaCombe13:02

Pair 2P. Mintyukov13:10I. Moore13:46

Pair 3R. Gudas11:25O. Zellweger13:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason McTavish STL First game back in Anaheim, his team until May 20260 SOG
Old teamCam Fowler STL Faces ANA, his team until Dec 20241 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, ANA 3.3	STL 4, ANA 0
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	STL 25.8, ANA 29.4	STL 35, ANA 22
Win chance	ANA 53%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.5	0	0.87	0	33%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.5	3	0.88	0	27%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	5	0.70	1	28%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.3	3	0.71	1	25%	0
ANA J. Trouba	2.2	3	0.47	0	9%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.2	2	0.82	0	27%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.1	3	0.61	2	21%	1
ANA M. Granlund	2.1	1	0.85	0	23%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.0	2	0.72	0	34%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.0	0	0.50	0	22%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.9	0	0.68	0	11%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	1	0.73	1	25%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	0	0.53	0	20%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.7	0	0.36	0	19%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	2	0.30	0	8%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	3	0.98	1	25%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.7	0	0.52	1	12%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	3	0.49	1	21%	1
STL L. Mailloux	1.6	3	0.29	0	11%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.5	1	0.54	0	19%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.4	0	0.19	0	12%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	2	0.33	0	16%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.47	1	8%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	3	0.53	1	23%	0
STL J. Drouin	1.2	2	0.50	1	13%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	2	0.40	0	9%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	2	0.24	0	4%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.1	1	0.24	0	7%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	1	0.27	0	5%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.0	3	0.21	0	11%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	1	0.28	0	10%	0
STL J. Finley	0.7	2	0.20	0	10%	0
STL J. Holl	0.7	0	0.18	1	3%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.7	2	0.15	0	4%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.19	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.