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Game Recap
STL3
BUF0
STL beat BUF 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.32 expected goals to 2.63. BUF outshot STL 28 to 17. M. Joseph led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Hofer stopped 28 of 28.
Team Stats
STLBUF
17Shots on goal28
1.32Expected goals2.63
35Shot attempts60
115v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/3
15Hits16
19Blocked shots12
11Penalty minutes7
6Giveaways14
4Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.32 xGBUF 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Joseph | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:53 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:10 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:47 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 2:05 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 1:56 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:04 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 1:09 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:16 | 1:57 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 27:09 | 1:39 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:11 | 0:40 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 24:08 | 2:40 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 28 | 28 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 4:38 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:00 | 4:20 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:04 | 2:33 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:24 | 4:11 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 3:04 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:07 | 1:35 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:15 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:07 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:15 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8:39 | 0:15 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:58 | 1:35 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22:43 | 4:26 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:03 | 1:46 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 16 | 14 | 2 | .875 | 59:50 | Loss |
| C. Ellis | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1B. Schenn14:32D. Holloway15:09P. Suter13:22
Line 2P. Buchnevich12:49R. Thomas11:59J. Snuggerud14:55
Line 3N. Walker10:44M. Joseph11:12N. Bjugstad10:06
Line 4A. Toropchenko10:48D. Dvorsky11:13A. Texier12:23
Pair 1P. Broberg21:35C. Parayko20:36
BUF
Line 2T. Thompson15:30I. Rosen14:06N. Ostlund12:39
Line 3B. Malenstyn9:13P. Krebs14:26J. Dunne8:24
Line 4J. Quinn14:03T. Kozak9:18J. Greenway9:45
Pair 1B. Byram18:03M. Kesselring15:29
Pair 2C. Timmins15:18O. Power20:31
Pair 3M. Samuelsson13:45R. Dahlin16:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.1, BUF 3.3 | STL 3, BUF 0 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.4, BUF 27.8 | STL 17, BUF 28 |
| Win chance | BUF 53% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.3 | 4 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.7 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF M. Kesselring | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF I. Rosen | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 3 | 10% | 1 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.