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Game Recap
STL3
CAR1
STL beat CAR 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.34 expected goals to 3.13. CAR outshot STL 32 to 17. J. Snuggerud led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Aho had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Binnington stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 8:38CARM. Jankowski0.25 xG
- 2nd 3:53STLJ. Snuggerud0.06 xG
- 3rd 15:12STLJ. Snuggerud0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:09STLP. BuchnevichEN0.74 xG
Team Stats
STLCAR
17Shots on goal32
2.34Expected goals3.13
34Shot attempts58
165v5 shots on goal27
0/1Power play0/2
18Hits16
9Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways11
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.34 xGCAR 3.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:34 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:03 | 1:39 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 1:35 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:23 | 1:40 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:21 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:25 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:26 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:22 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 1:38 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:20 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Lindstein | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 59:40 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:50 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:56 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 1:59 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 1:58 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:04 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:02 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:02 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:02 | 2:24 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:43 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:07 | 2:17 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:16 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:02 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 1:27 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 16 | 14 | 2 | .875 | 57:57 | Loss |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1D. Holloway17:41R. Thomas16:18J. Snuggerud17:10
Line 2P. Buchnevich12:49P. Suter13:55O. Stenberg12:10
Line 3J. Neighbours12:25D. Dvorsky11:59J. Kyrou11:41
Line 4N. Walker10:10J. Finley9:43A. Toropchenko8:56
Pair 1L. Mailloux17:34P. Broberg17:56
Pair 2C. Parayko19:13T. Lindstein14:50
CAR
Line 1A. Svechnikov16:03S. Jarvis15:46S. Aho15:41
Line 2L. Stankoven14:12J. Blake15:22T. Hall14:08
Line 3J. Staal11:39J. Martinook10:43N. Ehlers10:59
Line 4M. Jankowski10:07W. Carrier10:25E. Robinson9:41
Pair 2J. Slavin18:14J. Chatfield17:37
Pair 3M. Reilly13:39A. Nikishin13:09
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.7, CAR 3.5 | STL 3, CAR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | STL 21.7, CAR 31.9 | STL 17, CAR 32 |
| Win chance | CAR 64% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.9 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 7 | 0.99 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.2 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.9 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.5 | 0 | 0.87 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 5 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Finley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.