Game Recap: STL 4, CBJ 6, January 4, 2025

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalSat, Jan 4, 2025Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat STL 6-4, with the chances close: 3.69 expected goals to 4.19. J. Kyrou led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). Z. Werenski had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. E. Merzlikins stopped 29 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	0	4	4
CBJ	1	1	4	6

1st 19:01CBJD. Voronkov0.13 xG
2nd 2:15CBJK. MarchenkoPP0.15 xG
3rd 3:44CBJM. PyyhtiaSH0.22 xG
3rd 4:54STLJ. KyrouPP0.11 xG
3rd 5:25CBJA. Fantilli0.14 xG
3rd 6:55STLC. Fowler0.16 xG
3rd 7:24CBJD. Voronkov0.17 xG
3rd 12:54STLC. Parayko0.06 xG
3rd 16:16STLB. Schenn0.40 xG
3rd 18:59CBJM. OlivierEN0.40 xG

Team Stats

STLCBJ

33Shots on goal39

4.19Expected goals3.69

68Shot attempts68

275v5 shots on goal31

1/2Power play1/2

21Hits14

18Blocked shots24

9Penalty minutes9

14Giveaways15

3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 4.19 xGCBJ 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL31 on goal, 4 scored

CBJ39 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	1	2	3	5	1	1	0	0	19:28	2:02
D. Holloway	LW	0	2	2	4	3	1	0	0	18:33	2:05
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:32	2:07
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:26	1:14
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	14:59	1:52
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	12:22	0:00
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:47	1:16
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	15:23	1:19
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	14:54	1:14
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	12:27	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	11:05	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	10:46	0:00
C. Fowler	D	1	1	2	4	0	3	-2	0	22:53	1:16
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	1	3	2	-1	0	25:18	0:13
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	22:27	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:39	0:15
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:36	1:52
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7	8:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	38	33	5	.868	58:27	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	0	3	3	1	0	1	+2	0	23:42	2:09
D. Voronkov	LW	2	0	2	5	1	2	+3	0	21:40	2:10
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	5	0	1	+3	0	21:28	2:13
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:46	0:02
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	17:46	2:09
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	4	5	2	0	7	16:51	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	2	2	3	+1	0	12:26	0:06
M. Pyyhtia	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	8:52	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	13:31	0:05
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	13:26	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:35	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	3	3	2	0	2	0	0	23:39	0:06
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	7	0	4	+2	0	29:01	2:09
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	0	23:11	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	4:32	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	16:55	0:06
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	11:16	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	33	29	4	.879	59:48	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.2, CBJ 3.3	STL 4, CBJ 6
Total goals	6.5	10
Shots on goal	STL 27.9, CBJ 30.5	STL 33, CBJ 39
Win chance	CBJ 51%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	7	0.88	2	18%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	3.1	5	0.89	1	34%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	5	0.85	3	33%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.5	1	0.86	3	28%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.5	5	0.76	2	32%	2
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.3	3	0.49	1	18%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	4	0.58	2	25%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	1	0.84	1	29%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.9	1	0.64	1	23%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	1	1.02	0	26%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	1.9	2	0.48	1	19%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.8	2	0.62	1	22%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.7	1	0.40	1	9%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	3	0.47	1	24%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.5	2	0.32	0	15%	0
STL B. Saad	1.5	2	0.48	0	23%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.5	4	0.45	0	18%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	4	0.48	2	9%	1
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	1	0.26	1	6%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	4	0.38	1	16%	1
STL A. Texier	1.3	0	0.37	1	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	2	0.37	3	8%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.2	3	0.35	0	7%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	2	0.32	0	11%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	1	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.29	0	13%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	2	0.33	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.9	1	0.19	1	9%	1
STL R. Suter	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.8	0	0.23	0	5%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.6	0	0.10	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.5	0	0.27	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.5	0	0.14	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.