Game Recap: STL 1, CGY 2 (SO), March 18, 2026

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Game Recap

STL1

Final/SOWed, Mar 18, 2026Every game that night

CGY2

CGY beat STL 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 2.70. C. Parayko had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Cooley stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
STL	0	1	0	0	1
CGY	1	0	0	1	2

1st 2:34CGYC. Zary0.16 xG
2nd 3:47STLD. Holloway0.15 xG

Team Stats

STLCGY

26Shots on goal31

2.70Expected goals3.19

53Shot attempts52

235v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/4

26Hits17

11Blocked shots10

14Penalty minutes10

20Giveaways13

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.70 xGCGY 3.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL26 on goal, 1 scored

CGY31 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	4	3	1	+1	0	21:40	1:26
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	19:49	1:52
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	18:42	1:26
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:01	1:47
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	17:01	0:34
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:01	1:00
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:32	0:05
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:18	0:34
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	4	12:26	0:34
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:20	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:28	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:46	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	29:06	1:31
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	26:56	0:49
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	5	3	1	+1	0	24:20	0:21
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	21:58	0:11
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:11	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	9:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	31	30	1	.968	65:00	OT loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:50	1:39
C. Zary	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	17:33	2:04
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:53	1:31
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:21	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	5	4	1	-1	4	18:01	2:53
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	17:08	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:36	4:48
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	14:34	3:25
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:49	2:54
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:29	4:16
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:24	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	10:20	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	23:43	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:56	0:08
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	2	21:42	0:11
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	20:33	1:30
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:18	4:51
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	26	25	1	.962	65:00	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas16:12D. Holloway17:18J. Snuggerud15:48

Line 2D. Dvorsky13:51O. Stenberg14:02J. Drouin14:02

Line 3P. Buchnevich13:18J. Kyrou12:49J. Neighbours11:44

Line 4A. Toropchenko7:50J. Finley8:47P. Suter8:56

Pair 1P. Broberg21:37L. Mailloux20:47

Pair 2C. Parayko20:30T. Lindstein13:34

Pair 3C. Fowler17:31T. Tucker8:59

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund16:30B. Coleman15:08J. Farabee15:10

Line 2R. Strome15:05C. Zary14:56Y. Sharangovich17:21

Line 3A. Klapka11:44M. Pospisil10:22V. Olofsson10:34

Line 4M. Frost8:53M. Coronato9:39M. Gridin9:19

Pair 1O. Määttä20:52H. Brzustewicz17:43

Pair 2Z. Whitecloud19:31K. Bahl16:15

Pair 3J. Hanley15:14Z. Parekh13:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDylan Holloway STL Plays in his hometown1 G, 4 SOG
HometownJake Neighbours STL Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.0, CGY 2.9	STL 1, CGY 2
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	STL 26.0, CGY 28.6	STL 26, CGY 31
Win chance	STL 51%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL D. Holloway	2.7	4	0.79	1	27%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	2.4	1	0.70	1	23%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	5	0.56	0	25%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	2	0.63	0	26%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	3	0.52	0	22%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	0	0.53	0	19%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.9	1	0.47	0	17%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	3	0.68	0	23%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	1	0.99	1	25%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.7	2	0.44	0	22%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.7	5	0.43	0	21%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	1	0.43	0	19%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	1	0.47	0	18%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	0	0.43	0	19%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.5	2	0.26	0	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	1	0.43	0	9%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	5	0.30	0	8%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.3	0	0.45	1	14%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.3	4	0.37	1	16%	1
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	0	0.30	0	15%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.2	0	0.19	0	6%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.2	0	0.47	0	20%	0
STL J. Drouin	1.2	1	0.47	0	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	0	0.39	0	6%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.1	0	0.23	0	7%	0
CGY O. Määttä	1.1	2	0.29	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	1	0.29	0	5%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	2	0.25	0	12%	0
STL O. Stenberg	1.0	3	0.38	0	12%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
STL J. Finley	0.7	1	0.20	0	9%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	2	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.