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Game Recap
STL6
CHI2
STL beat CHI 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.63 expected goals to 2.75. J. Faulk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Donato had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Binnington stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 1:40STLC. FowlerPP0.15 xG
- 1st 8:10STLJ. KyrouPP0.15 xG
- 1st 15:26CHIT. HallPP0.44 xG
- 2nd 7:15STLJ. Faulk0.02 xG
- 2nd 13:34STLD. Holloway0.37 xG
- 2nd 17:51STLC. Fowler0.02 xG
- 3rd 11:15CHIT. BertuzziPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 16:18STLA. Texier0.50 xG
Team Stats
STLCHI
28Shots on goal30
3.63Expected goals2.75
54Shot attempts54
225v5 shots on goal24
2/3Power play2/4
20Hits17
11Blocked shots10
15Penalty minutes13
17Giveaways15
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.63 xGCHI 2.75 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:12 |
| A. Texier | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:18 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:35 | 2:16 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:39 | 2:11 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 14:58 | 2:10 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 2:17 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 2:10 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:17 | 2:18 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:16 | 2:16 |
| C. Fowler | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:08 | 2:12 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 59:32 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:05 | 4:08 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:44 | 4:09 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 16:31 | 2:21 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:56 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:10 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 3:59 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:50 | 3:49 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:46 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:26 | 2:12 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:14 | 2:20 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:29 | 4:02 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:45 | 2:26 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:10 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:02 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Mrazek | 28 | 22 | 6 | .786 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.3, CHI 2.7 | STL 6, CHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | STL 28.4, CHI 26.6 | STL 28, CHI 30 |
| Win chance | STL 59% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 5 | 0.89 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.6 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 3 | 0.57 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.2 | 1 | 0.89 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.1 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.0 | 5 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 3 | 0.50 | 3 | 8% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.6 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 7% | 2 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.