Game Recap: STL 3, CHI 7, January 7, 2026

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Game Recap

STL3

FinalWed, Jan 7, 2026Every game that night

CHI7

CHI beat STL 7-3, with the chances close: 3.48 expected goals to 3.37. C. Murphy led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Bertuzzi had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. S. Knight stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	1	1	3
CHI	1	4	2	7

1st 0:27STLT. Tucker0.17 xG
1st 9:26CHIN. LardisPP0.11 xG
2nd 7:41CHIO. MoorePP0.04 xG
2nd 8:22STLO. Stenberg0.06 xG
2nd 8:57CHIC. Murphy0.08 xG
2nd 12:27CHIL. Slaggert0.09 xG
2nd 17:24CHIJ. Dickinson0.04 xG
3rd 5:11CHIA. BurakovskyPP0.14 xG
3rd 12:56CHIL. Crevier0.37 xG
3rd 13:19STLN. Walker0.06 xG

Team Stats

STLCHI

30Shots on goal35

3.37Expected goals3.48

63Shot attempts55

225v5 shots on goal24

0/5Power play3/4

25Hits19

7Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes20

13Giveaways16

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.37 xGCHI 3.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL29 on goal, 3 scored

CHI34 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	17:18	3:27
O. Stenberg	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	13:55	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	11:16	0:00
N. Walker	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	9:51	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	19:45	5:36
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	17:37	5:42
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:32	3:11
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	17:19	5:40
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:09	5:45
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	16:14	3:24
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	15:40	3:25
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:15	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:52	1:09
T. Tucker	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:57	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	22:01	4:49
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:16	3:11
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	18:52	0:16
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	14:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	35	28	7	.800	59:56	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Moore	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	-1	0	14:37	2:38
L. Slaggert	LW	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	12:47	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:05	3:01
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:09	1:49
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	15:27	1:30
J. Dickinson	C	1	0	1	3	4	2	+2	0	14:54	0:15
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	12:58	2:30
N. Lardis	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	-1	0	12:20	2:43
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	10:12	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	2	17:02	0:15
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	4	1	2	+1	2	15:15	1:39
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	10	12:28	1:59
C. Murphy	D	1	1	2	2	0	4	+2	2	19:08	0:00
L. Crevier	D	1	1	2	2	2	2	+1	0	17:35	0:15
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	16:59	2:25
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	17:32	0:15
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	23:57	0:14
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	4	21:09	2:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	30	27	3	.900	59:26	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1J. Berggren14:21D. Dvorsky14:04O. Stenberg13:27

Line 2J. Kyrou11:56J. Neighbours11:50R. Thomas9:15

Line 3P. Buchnevich9:47J. Snuggerud11:44B. Schenn12:29

Line 4N. Walker9:11A. Toropchenko9:41O. Sundqvist7:18

Pair 1C. Parayko15:57P. Broberg16:56

Pair 2C. Fowler15:44L. Mailloux14:02

Pair 3J. Faulk14:40T. Tucker12:53

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky13:25R. Greene14:16T. Bertuzzi9:21

Line 2R. Donato13:13I. Mikheyev12:54J. Dickinson10:41

Line 3N. Foligno10:17L. Slaggert10:12C. Dach10:12

Line 4N. Lardis9:37O. Moore11:50T. Teravainen8:52

Pair 1W. Kaiser18:21A. Levshunov17:10

Pair 2C. Murphy15:40M. Grzelcyk14:04

Pair 3A. Vlasic12:51L. Crevier12:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, CHI 2.8	STL 3, CHI 7
Total goals	5.7	10
Shots on goal	STL 24.7, CHI 25.4	STL 30, CHI 35
Win chance	STL 52%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL J. Kyrou	2.3	4	0.65	0	27%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	6	0.72	0	30%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.0	4	0.64	0	26%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	0	0.46	0	23%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	2	0.50	0	12%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	1	1.00	0	25%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	4	0.71	0	24%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.7	4	0.48	0	18%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	4	0.68	1	21%	1
CHI N. Lardis	1.6	2	0.27	1	15%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.6	3	0.56	1	21%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.5	1	0.51	0	5%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.5	2	0.38	1	14%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	1	0.58	0	25%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.5	2	0.25	2	6%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.4	1	0.40	0	11%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	1	0.40	1	10%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	1	0.30	0	16%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	2	0.29	1	13%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	2	0.60	1	21%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.3	1	0.40	0	17%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.2	0	0.40	1	15%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.48	0	8%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	1	0.36	2	11%	1
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	3	0.33	1	16%	1
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.1	1	0.33	2	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	3	0.22	0	6%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	2	0.31	1	14%	1
STL T. Tucker	1.1	2	0.21	1	6%	1
STL O. Stenberg	1.1	1	0.46	1	12%	1
STL L. Mailloux	1.0	0	0.19	0	6%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	2	0.20	2	4%	1
CHI C. Dach	1.0	0	0.21	1	10%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.25	1	4%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	2	0.20	2	9%	1
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.34	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.