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Game Recap
STL1
COL6
COL beat STL 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 1.40. COL outshot STL 43 to 13. N. MacKinnon led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). V. Nichushkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. M. Blackwood stopped 12 of 13.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| COL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 1:00COLV. Nichushkin0.06 xG
- 1st 3:13COLN. MacKinnon0.22 xG
- 1st 3:26COLV. Nichushkin0.20 xG
- 1st 4:39COLN. MacKinnon0.07 xG
- 2nd 9:41COLB. NelsonPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 14:32STLD. Dvorsky0.01 xG
- 3rd 16:06COLV. Nichushkin0.27 xG
Team Stats
STLCOL
13Shots on goal43
1.40Expected goals3.94
28Shot attempts78
95v5 shots on goal38
0/3Power play1/3
22Hits6
24Blocked shots7
6Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways12
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.40 xGCOL 3.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 1:52 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:51 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:50 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 15:30 | 2:31 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:52 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:41 | 1:53 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:15 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 2:34 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 | 13:51 | 1:52 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:18 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:53 | 2:43 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:09 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:50 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 43 | 37 | 6 | .860 | 59:39 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:12 | 2:53 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:05 | 3:11 |
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:52 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:11 | 1:05 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:23 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:55 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | 0:24 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:14 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:07 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:46 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:46 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:59 | 3:21 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:15 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:33 | 1:13 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:10 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 13 | 12 | 1 | .923 | 59:35 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1P. Buchnevich12:12R. Thomas12:48J. Berggren14:00
Line 2D. Dvorsky12:59O. Stenberg11:59J. Kyrou11:35
Line 3B. Schenn12:19J. Neighbours11:34J. Snuggerud12:45
Line 4R. Fabbri12:22A. Toropchenko11:46O. Sundqvist10:47
Pair 1C. Parayko16:34P. Broberg18:00
COL
Line 1P. Kelly14:17Z. Bardakov13:06G. Brindley10:43
Line 2G. Landeskog12:57M. Necas14:23N. MacKinnon12:55
Line 3R. Colton12:23J. Drury12:07V. Olofsson10:28
Line 4B. Nelson11:23V. Nichushkin11:28A. Lehkonen11:05
Pair 1S. Girard17:14S. Malinski15:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.5, COL 3.6 | STL 1, COL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | STL 23.7, COL 33.0 | STL 13, COL 43 |
| Win chance | COL 68% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 7 | 1.57 | 4 | 44% | 2 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.9 | 2 | 1.10 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.6 | 0 | 0.90 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.5 | 6 | 0.78 | 3 | 33% | 3 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.4 | 5 | 1.02 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.87 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.2 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.1 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.8 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.6 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.34 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL G. Brindley | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.6 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.5 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 12 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.