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Game Recap
STL1
FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
COL6

COL beat STL 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.81 expected goals to 1.78. COL outshot STL 36 to 26. M. Necas led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Blackwood stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
STL0011
COL2406
  1. 1st 4:09COLC. Makar0.20 xG
  2. 1st 13:12COLM. Necas0.19 xG
  3. 2nd 5:38COLJ. Manson0.03 xG
  4. 2nd 11:40COLA. Lehkonen0.21 xG
  5. 2nd 18:02COLN. Roy0.13 xG
  6. 2nd 18:25COLM. Necas0.20 xG
  7. 3rd 2:34STLD. Dvorsky0.14 xG

Team Stats

STLCOL
26Shots on goal36
1.78Expected goals3.81
53Shot attempts66
225v5 shots on goal28
0/2Power play0/4
28Hits16
14Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways16
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 1.78 xGCOL 3.81 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdCOL goal, 4:09COL goal, 13:12COL goal, 5:38COL goal, 11:40COL goal, 18:02COL goal, 18:25STL goal, 2:34

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL24 on goal, 1 scored
COL36 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. DvorskyRW101300-1212:171:23
R. ThomasC000001-2016:302:24
P. SuterC000010-1016:140:05
P. BuchnevichLW0002100015:431:32
D. HollowayLW000231-3015:352:23
C. McMichaelLW0002100015:191:31
M. McTavishC0003200014:572:32
J. SnuggerudRW000130-2014:512:25
J. BerggrenRW000300-2014:480:00
J. NeighboursLW000152-1013:431:30
D. DubeC000010-1213:160:05
Z. DeanC000020-2412:370:05
T. LindsteinD011001-1014:260:00
C. FowlerD0001030023:242:25
C. ParaykoD000233-3020:450:05
P. BrobergD000311-4020:160:05
A. JiricekD000121-2019:431:30
B. CarloD0002310017:360:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Binnington36306.83360:00Loss
J. Hofer000–0:00

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. NecasC213410+4019:215:51
N. MacKinnonC033400+3018:164:59
A. LehkonenLW112212+3019:262:35
P. KellyC022112+2015:310:00
N. RoyC112331+1212:530:00
G. LandeskogLW011010+1014:355:09
T. HughesRW0002000019:565:27
N. KadriC000401+1018:273:01
B. NelsonC0001010016:112:01
F. SvechkovC000200+1015:050:00
J. SchwartzLW000401-1014:142:52
J. MansonD112231+4016:360:00
C. MakarD101300+2020:046:01
D. ToewsD000011+1018:551:59
B. KulakD0000130016:480:00
S. MalinskiD000101+4015:370:05
B. BurnsD000200-1213:100:00
N. JuulsenD0001410010:550:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Blackwood26251.96260:00Win
S. Wedgewood000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1D. Holloway12:12J. Snuggerud12:22R. Thomas10:58
Line 2P. Suter13:01Z. Dean12:32D. Dube10:56
Line 3J. Berggren14:27D. Dvorsky10:54J. Neighbours10:26
Line 4C. McMichael10:24M. McTavish12:25P. Buchnevich13:26
Pair 1C. Parayko16:55P. Broberg16:30
Pair 2C. Fowler16:41A. Jiricek18:13
Pair 3B. Carlo13:12T. Lindstein14:26

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon13:12M. Necas13:30A. Lehkonen14:11
Line 2N. Roy12:17P. Kelly14:01F. Svechkov14:38
Line 3N. Kadri15:26B. Nelson11:28G. Landeskog9:26
Line 4J. Schwartz11:22T. Hughes14:29
Pair 1D. Toews15:02C. Makar12:46
Pair 2B. Burns12:25J. Manson14:12
Pair 3B. Kulak15:26S. Malinski15:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 19 overs hit (58%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
COL N. MacKinnon3.5-155+1224Over
COL A. Lehkonen2.5-120-1102Under
COL B. Nelson2.5+128-1351Under
COL C. Makar2.5-120+1203Over
STL D. Holloway2.5+110-1202Under
COL G. Landeskog2.5+114-1400Under
STL J. Snuggerud2.5+135-1701Under
COL M. Necas2.5-154+1204Over
COL N. Kadri2.5-110-1104Over
COL S. Malinski2.5+135-1801Under
COL B. Burns1.5-154+1402Over
STL C. McMichael1.5-120-1102Over
STL C. Parayko1.5-102-1282Over
COL D. Toews1.5-160+1250Under
COL J. Manson1.5+115-1502Over
COL J. Schwartz1.5-120-1104Over
STL M. McTavish1.5-145+1353Over
STL P. Broberg1.5+126-1683Over
STL R. Thomas1.5-104-1150Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSTL 2.6, COL 3.8STL 1, COL 6
Total goals6.47
Shots on goalSTL 23.3, COL 32.9STL 26, COL 36
Win chanceCOL 68%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon3.741.27339%0
COL G. Landeskog2.600.83132%0
COL C. Makar2.630.95123%1
COL N. Kadri2.640.68025%0
COL M. Necas2.641.02329%2
STL D. Holloway2.520.65023%0
STL J. Snuggerud2.310.61021%0
COL B. Nelson2.110.69030%0
COL A. Lehkonen1.920.60226%1
COL S. Malinski1.910.3708%0
COL B. Burns1.820.3709%0
COL D. Toews1.800.57010%0
STL M. McTavish1.730.38015%0
COL J. Schwartz1.640.47020%0
STL R. Thomas1.600.80022%0
STL C. McMichael1.520.43016%0
COL J. Manson1.520.3326%1
STL P. Buchnevich1.520.49019%0
STL P. Suter1.300.34015%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.230.24113%1
STL C. Parayko1.220.2607%0
COL B. Kulak1.200.2304%0
COL P. Kelly1.110.31214%0
STL Z. Dean1.100.1308%0
STL J. Berggren1.130.33014%0
STL J. Neighbours1.110.38016%0
COL F. Svechkov1.120.29011%0
COL N. Roy1.030.33213%1
STL P. Broberg1.030.3206%0
STL T. Lindstein1.000.1815%0
STL D. Dube0.900.1909%0
STL C. Fowler0.910.3405%0
STL B. Carlo0.820.1102%0
COL N. Juulsen0.510.1202%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.