DAL beat STL 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 2.47. DAL outshot STL 37 to 16. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Hintz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Oettinger stopped 15 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 9:08STLJ. Kyrou0.19 xG
- 2nd 2:39DALJ. RobertsonPP0.13 xG
- OT 2:31DALM. Duchene0.19 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.47 xGDAL 3.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22:03 | 3:13 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:48 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:50 | 3:11 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:47 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:58 | 2:51 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:55 | 0:37 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 1:12 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 1:09 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28:20 | 0:12 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:50 | 2:56 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 | 1:04 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 62:31 | OT loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 3:31 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 3:29 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 3:13 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 3:06 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 3:30 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 2:49 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:32 | 3:05 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 3:04 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:07 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:06 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:54 | 0:02 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:49 | 5:51 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:46 | 1:26 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:14 | 0:06 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 62:31 | Win |
| M. Hellberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.7, DAL 3.4 | STL 1, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 25.6, DAL 31.9 | STL 16, DAL 37 |
| Win chance | DAL 62% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.9 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.5 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.2 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 6 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 5 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.8 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.