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Game Recap
STL3
DAL6
DAL beat STL 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.50 expected goals to 3.11. STL outshot DAL 42 to 21. R. Hintz led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). A. Toropchenko had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Oettinger stopped 39 of 42.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| DAL | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 1:56DALM. MarchmentPP0.06 xG
- 1st 3:22STLZ. Bolduc0.30 xG
- 1st 13:28DALM. Duchene0.34 xG
- 1st 18:34STLD. HollowayPP0.06 xG
- 1st 19:58DALW. JohnstonPP0.21 xG
- 2nd 1:06DALR. Hintz0.13 xG
- 2nd 8:02STLN. Walker0.18 xG
- 3rd 9:14DALW. JohnstonPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 11:11DALW. JohnstonPP0.19 xG
Team Stats
STLDAL
42Shots on goal21
3.11Expected goals2.50
69Shot attempts36
315v5 shots on goal16
1/3Power play4/4
21Hits11
8Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes6
22Giveaways21
9Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.11 xGDAL 2.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:46 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:19 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:24 | 2:19 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 17:57 | 2:20 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 2:45 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 2:47 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:05 |
| N. Walker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:03 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:54 | 2:50 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:16 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:24 | 0:07 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:07 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:32 | 2:42 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:26 | 2:29 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 9 | 6 | 3 | .667 | 20:00 | |
| J. Binnington | 12 | 9 | 3 | .750 | 34:09 | Loss |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:45 | 2:47 |
| W. Johnston | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:56 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:47 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:40 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:50 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:40 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:31 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:37 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:27 | 3:21 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:06 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 42 | 39 | 3 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.5, DAL 3.3 | STL 3, DAL 6 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | STL 25.1, DAL 29.6 | STL 42, DAL 21 |
| Win chance | DAL 63% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.7 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.6 | 4 | 0.81 | 3 | 30% | 3 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.3 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.78 | 4 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.1 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.0 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.8 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.8 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 5 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 9 | 0.19 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.