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Game Recap
STL4
DAL5
DAL beat STL 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.67 expected goals to 2.54. DAL outshot STL 28 to 18. J. Benn led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Robertson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Oettinger stopped 14 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| DAL | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 7:29STLP. BuchnevichPP0.09 xG
- 1st 11:37DALJ. Robertson0.12 xG
- 1st 18:33STLJ. Kyrou0.13 xG
- 2nd 1:55DALM. DuchenePP0.06 xG
- 2nd 3:58DALM. Bourque0.39 xG
- 2nd 11:57DALJ. Benn0.18 xG
- 3rd 11:05STLJ. Snuggerud0.14 xG
- 3rd 15:31STLA. Toropchenko0.27 xG
- 3rd 19:37DALJ. Benn0.09 xG
Team Stats
STLDAL
18Shots on goal28
2.54Expected goals3.67
44Shot attempts49
145v5 shots on goal19
1/4Power play1/3
28Hits24
10Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes10
18Giveaways13
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.54 xGDAL 3.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 5:03 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:51 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 5:12 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:49 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:07 | 5:06 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 1:48 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:42 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 3:41 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:01 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:40 | 4:53 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:44 | 2:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:44 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:55 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 59:37 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Benn | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:54 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:35 | 5:06 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:07 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:49 | 5:06 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 2:02 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:08 | 3:54 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:42 | 3:53 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:04 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 25:20 | 4:08 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 25:15 | 0:44 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:27 | 1:58 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1J. Kyrou14:13J. Neighbours13:57P. Buchnevich12:15
Line 2R. Fabbri13:27P. Suter14:16J. Snuggerud15:57
Line 3O. Sundqvist10:33N. Walker12:07A. Toropchenko9:55
Line 4B. Schenn14:02D. Dvorsky9:49
Pair 1C. Fowler16:28L. Mailloux14:14
Pair 2P. Broberg16:49C. Parayko15:01
DAL
Line 1J. Benn11:40M. Duchene14:12S. Steel11:11
Line 2J. Robertson14:06M. Bourque13:32R. Hintz10:50
Line 4M. Rantanen11:43W. Johnston12:49J. Hryckowian9:08
Pair 1E. Lindell18:47M. Heiskanen16:12
Pair 2N. Lundkvist14:03T. Harley16:18
Pair 3K. Capobianco14:17I. Lyubushkin14:11
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.7, DAL 3.3 | STL 4, DAL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | STL 24.0, DAL 25.8 | STL 18, DAL 28 |
| Win chance | DAL 60% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.0 | 6 | 1.12 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.4 | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 1 | 1.20 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 5 | 0.87 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.0 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.5 | 3 | 0.68 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.3 | 2 | 0.52 | 3 | 18% | 2 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.