Game Recap: STL 4, DAL 0, October 2, 2026

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026Every game that night

DAL0

STL beat DAL 4-0, with the chances close: 3.15 expected goals to 2.57. P. Suter led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Suter had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Hofer stopped 25 of 25.

Team Stats

STLDAL

24Shots on goal25

3.15Expected goals2.57

48Shot attempts58

155v5 shots on goal16

0/4Power play0/4

18Hits21

12Blocked shots19

24Penalty minutes13

15Giveaways16

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.15 xGDAL 2.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL22 on goal, 3 scored

DAL24 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	18:59	4:46
P. Suter	C	1	1	2	4	4	0	+2	0	14:25	0:01
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	14:36	4:48
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:03	2:58
D. Dvorsky	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:03	2:33
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	22:59	4:37
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:21	4:51
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	17:11	2:39
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:45	0:52
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	7	13:03	1:33
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	5	2	+1	0	9:59	0:10
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:08	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	23:08	0:51
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+2	0	20:27	0:04
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	22:38	5:00
A. Jiricek	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	16:35	2:33
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15	15:27	0:00
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	15:13	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	25	25	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	0	-2	0	22:10	8:01
W. Johnston	C	4	1	1	-2	0	21:49	6:11
J. Robertson	LW	2	0	0	-3	0	19:39	6:52
J. Hryckowian	C	1	2	0	-1	0	17:12	3:05
R. Hintz	C	0	2	0	-2	0	16:57	5:03
T. Seguin	C	4	0	0	-2	6	14:55	2:19
A. Hyry	RW	1	4	0	-1	5	13:07	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	4	0	0	12:03	0:00
S. Steel	C	3	2	0	-1	0	11:19	0:00
R. Faksa	C	1	1	2	0	0	11:07	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	2	1	1	0	0	10:18	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	1	0	-1	0	10:03	1:48
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	4	-2	0	26:45	5:40
T. Harley	D	1	1	0	-2	2	20:59	3:41
E. Lindell	D	1	2	3	0	0	18:43	0:40
L. Bichsel	D	0	3	1	-1	0	16:02	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	2	0	1	-2	0	15:22	0:00
T. Myers	D	1	0	2	0	0	13:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	22	20	2	.909	58:17	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas13:01D. Holloway12:17J. Snuggerud12:10

Line 2J. Berggren12:13D. Dvorsky10:10J. Neighbours9:31

Line 3P. Buchnevich9:02C. McMichael7:58M. McTavish9:01

Line 4R. Johnston9:49P. Suter8:38A. Toropchenko4:47

Pair 1C. Fowler13:22B. Carlo12:01

Pair 2C. Parayko13:57T. Lindstein12:51

Pair 3A. Jiricek13:01P. Broberg14:16

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen12:17W. Johnston12:11J. Hryckowian12:00

Line 2S. Steel9:12A. Hyry10:08J. Benn8:09

Line 3T. Seguin10:21R. Hintz8:30J. Robertson11:02

Line 4O. Bäck8:44J. Kiviranta8:16R. Faksa8:04

Pair 1M. Heiskanen14:29T. Harley14:41

Pair 2T. Myers11:43L. Bichsel13:37

Pair 3E. Lindell12:12N. Lundkvist12:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 14 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DAL J. Robertson	3.5	+110	-130	2	Under
STL D. Holloway	2.5	-105	-110	1	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+126	-155	4	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.5	+138	-170	1	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+120	-135	1	Under
DAL R. Hintz	2.5	+138	-180	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	-115	-105	4	Over
STL C. McMichael	1.5	-114	–	1	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.5	-105	-130	1	Under
STL M. McTavish	1.5	-164	+125	3	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	+125	-160	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	1.5	-113	-110	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-140	+118	1	Under
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	-122	+100	4	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+1000	–	0	Under
STL A. Toropchenko	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+2200	–	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+400	-470	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+600	-1400	1	Over
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+390	-600	0	Under
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.5	+750	–	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+430	-750	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+145	-190	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+290	-370	1	Over
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+1600	-5000	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+470	-750	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+350	-400	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+195	-230	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+1500	-5000	0	Under
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	+950	-2800	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+370	-470	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+800	-2000	1	Over
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+205	-270	0	Under
STL R. Johnston	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+285	-380	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
STL T. Lindstein	0.5	+1600	-10000	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2200	–	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under

4 of 26 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+180	-260	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+225	–	1	Over
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+320	-475	1	Over
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+160	-195	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+230	-270	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-104	-115	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+175	-225	1	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+235	–	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-120	-105	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+190	-255	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+265	-380	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+110	-145	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+265	-380	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+215	-240	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under

6 of 25 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DAL J. Robertson	1.5	+196	-230	0	Under
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+360	–	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+130	–	1	Over
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+185	-255	1	Over
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-125	-105	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+225	-260	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-115	-115	2	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-155	+135	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+125	–	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-235	+190	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+380	-575	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+155	-210	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+155	-215	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+100	-130	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	-180	+145	0	Under

0 of 11 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+300	-500	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+120	-170	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+300	-550	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+140	-200	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+350	–	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+135	-185	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+330	–	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+200	-280	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+270	-400	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+165	-250	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
STL J. Hofer	25.5	-110	-104	25	Under
DAL J. Oettinger	21.5	+100	-118	20	Under

1 of 5 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-155	+110	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+180	-260	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+155	-220	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+170	-245	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+150	-215	1	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.8, DAL 3.2	STL 4, DAL 0
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	STL 24.2, DAL 26.8	STL 24, DAL 25
Win chance	DAL 57%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.7	2	1.17	0	41%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	4	0.98	0	38%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.4	1	0.72	0	24%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	1	1.10	0	34%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.3	1	0.78	0	12%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.2	4	0.64	2	21%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	0	0.71	0	26%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	1	0.54	0	12%	0
STL M. McTavish	1.6	3	0.41	1	15%	1
STL C. McMichael	1.6	1	0.49	1	18%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.5	0	0.85	0	22%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	4	0.52	0	21%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	0	0.53	0	19%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.3	2	0.29	1	9%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.3	1	0.22	0	4%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.3	0	0.49	0	18%	0
STL P. Suter	1.3	4	0.37	2	15%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.35	0	7%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	1	0.41	0	17%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	2	0.26	1	13%	1
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
STL T. Lindstein	1.1	1	0.22	0	7%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.1	0	0.38	0	15%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	3	0.38	0	12%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	1	0.37	1	8%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.1	1	0.43	0	17%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	2	0.24	0	4%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
STL B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.13	0	3%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.0	2	0.39	0	7%	0
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.9	2	0.17	0	9%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.24	0	8%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	0	0.17	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.21	0	8%	0
STL R. Johnston	0.5	0	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.