Game Recap: STL 0, EDM 5, January 18, 2026

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Game Recap

STL0

FinalSun, Jan 18, 2026Every game that night

EDM5

EDM beat STL 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.81. Z. Hyman led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Ingram stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	0	0	0
EDM	3	1	1	5

1st 5:55EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.11 xG
1st 11:52EDMA. Mangiapane0.28 xG
1st 18:43EDMZ. Hyman0.33 xG
2nd 10:52EDMZ. Hyman0.12 xG
3rd 1:19EDMV. Podkolzin0.34 xG

Team Stats

STLEDM

27Shots on goal28

2.81Expected goals3.56

66Shot attempts43

215v5 shots on goal23

0/4Power play1/3

20Hits15

6Blocked shots21

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways14

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.81 xGEDM 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL27 on goal, 0 scored

EDM27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	3	1	1	-1	2	17:56	3:56
J. Snuggerud	RW	3	1	0	-1	0	17:37	3:50
J. Neighbours	LW	0	2	0	-1	0	17:36	3:48
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	0	-2	0	16:35	3:46
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	-1	0	15:51	3:56
D. Dvorsky	RW	1	0	0	-1	0	15:12	3:10
O. Stenberg	C	1	1	0	-1	0	14:49	1:20
N. Bjugstad	C	2	2	2	-2	0	14:40	0:56
A. Toropchenko	RW	2	1	0	0	0	13:20	0:23
N. Walker	LW	1	4	0	0	2	13:15	0:25
D. Holloway	LW	3	0	1	-2	0	12:45	3:13
O. Sundqvist	C	1	1	0	0	0	12:27	2:14
P. Broberg	D	2	0	0	-2	0	25:27	3:16
J. Faulk	D	2	0	0	0	0	20:43	3:53
C. Parayko	D	2	1	1	-3	0	19:52	0:38
C. Fowler	D	1	0	1	-1	0	17:49	1:08
L. Mailloux	D	0	4	0	-1	0	15:35	0:04
T. Tucker	D	2	2	0	-1	2	13:54	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	28	23	5	.821	60:00	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Hyman	LW	2	1	3	4	0	1	+3	0	17:59	2:51
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	+3	0	22:42	3:09
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+3	0	14:05	0:03
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:20	2:50
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	10:19	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	9:31	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:18	0:29
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:46	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:14	0:47
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:48	0:47
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	11:14	0:03
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2:53	0:03
M. Ekholm	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+3	2	19:02	0:48
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+3	4	21:05	2:56
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	18:54	2:51
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	23:04	0:42
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	20:52	0:03
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	17:54	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1B. Schenn13:36J. Neighbours13:45J. Snuggerud13:47

Line 2J. Kyrou11:55D. Dvorsky12:02D. Holloway9:32

Line 3N. Bjugstad13:10O. Stenberg12:52P. Buchnevich11:32

Line 4N. Walker12:27A. Toropchenko11:34O. Sundqvist8:27

Pair 1P. Broberg19:20C. Parayko16:51

Pair 2J. Faulk15:42C. Fowler15:58

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:08C. McDavid16:15V. Podkolzin13:21

Line 2J. Roslovic15:27I. Howard14:01M. Savoie14:17

Line 3R. Nugent-Hopkins10:39T. Frederic11:11M. Janmark12:23

Line 4A. Mangiapane10:19C. Lazar8:48

Pair 1D. Nurse18:23T. Emberson17:56

Pair 2M. Ekholm15:24E. Bouchard16:53

Pair 3J. Walman14:30S. Stastney14:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Holloway STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20243 SOG
Old teamKasperi Kapanen EDM Faces STL, his team until Nov 20241 SOG
Old teamPhilip Broberg STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20242 SOG
HometownColton Parayko STL Plays near home (born in St. Albert)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.0, EDM 3.4	STL 0, EDM 5
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	STL 24.1, EDM 30.2	STL 27, EDM 28
Win chance	EDM 57%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	4	1.53	2	38%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.0	4	0.81	3	38%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	2	0.99	1	18%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.5	0	0.69	0	29%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	3	0.63	0	23%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.2	3	0.50	0	19%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	2	0.37	0	9%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	3	0.81	1	24%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	1	0.44	2	9%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.8	3	0.44	1	10%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.8	2	0.46	0	20%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	1	0.65	0	23%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.6	2	0.30	0	15%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.6	2	0.42	0	10%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.6	1	0.39	0	15%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	3	0.57	0	21%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	0	0.58	0	25%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	2	0.38	2	15%	1
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	1	0.29	0	16%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.3	2	0.34	0	9%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.2	1	0.21	0	11%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.2	0	0.25	0	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	1	0.44	0	8%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	2	0.25	0	11%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	2	0.33	0	8%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.29	0	13%	0
EDM S. Stastney	1.0	0	0.18	0	3%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	1	0.33	0	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	2	0.20	0	6%	0
STL O. Stenberg	0.9	1	0.43	0	12%	0
STL L. Mailloux	0.9	0	0.16	0	6%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	0	0.17	0	10%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	0.8	1	0.25	1	12%	1
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.6	1	0.19	0	7%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	1	0.15	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.