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Game Recap
STL1
FLA2
FLA beat STL 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.58 expected goals to 2.34. A. Barkov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). U. Balinskis had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 10:01STLO. Sundqvist0.08 xG
- 2nd 10:58FLAU. Balinskis0.13 xG
- OT 4:43FLAA. BarkovPP0.14 xG
Team Stats
STLFLA
27Shots on goal27
2.34Expected goals1.58
46Shot attempts61
185v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play1/2
21Hits20
21Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
8Giveaways15
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.34 xGFLA 1.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:31 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 1:31 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:27 | 2:27 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:27 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 | 1:31 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 2:27 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:58 | 1:31 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 2:27 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:02 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:02 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:02 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 28:34 | 0:06 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:43 | 2:27 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:41 | 0:52 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:02 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:35 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 64:43 | OT loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:18 | 2:01 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:35 | 2:09 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:00 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:05 | 1:37 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:25 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:04 | 0:26 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:23 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:05 | 2:11 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:57 | 0:17 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:15 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 64:43 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.5, FLA 3.6 | STL 1, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 24.2, FLA 33.2 | STL 27, FLA 27 |
| Win chance | FLA 66% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.2 | 3 | 1.18 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.0 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 0 | 1.05 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.7 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.5 | 3 | 1.11 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.3 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.6 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 6 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.7 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.