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Game Recap
STL6
FLA2
STL beat FLA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.34 expected goals to 2.44. R. Thomas led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Jones had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Hofer stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| FLA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 9:59STLJ. Neighbours0.08 xG
- 2nd 1:55STLJ. BerggrenPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 7:35FLAA. Greer0.28 xG
- 2nd 12:45FLAS. ReinhartPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 19:59STLJ. Faulk0.00 xG
- 3rd 12:02STLJ. Neighbours0.22 xG
- 3rd 12:53STLR. Thomas0.15 xG
- 3rd 16:28STLR. ThomasEN0.60 xG
Team Stats
STLFLA
32Shots on goal29
3.34Expected goals2.44
52Shot attempts53
275v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play1/4
19Hits26
14Blocked shots7
6Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways13
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.34 xGFLA 2.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:09 | 3:52 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:47 | 3:54 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:22 | 3:49 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:46 | 3:47 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:24 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:27 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:21 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 22:44 | 3:39 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:36 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:35 | 1:26 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:26 | 4:14 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:27 | 4:14 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:04 | 4:14 |
| A. Greer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:04 | 4:14 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:04 | 2:17 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:06 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:58 | 2:09 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:41 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:23 | 0:38 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:43 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:58 | 4:14 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 1:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:21 | 1:47 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 2:09 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:59 | 0:38 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 57:39 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1P. Buchnevich12:04J. Berggren11:53R. Thomas12:18
Line 2P. Suter12:38R. Fabbri13:20D. Dvorsky12:49
Line 3M. Joseph11:02A. Toropchenko10:18O. Sundqvist9:49
Line 4B. Schenn10:37J. Neighbours10:13O. Stenberg9:21
Pair 1C. Parayko15:18P. Broberg16:25
Pair 3C. Fowler14:39L. Mailloux15:03
FLA
Line 1B. Marchand13:09S. Bennett13:42C. Verhaeghe12:40
Line 2A. Greer13:39E. Rodrigues12:18J. Boqvist11:34
Line 3S. Reinhart12:16A. Lundell11:44E. Luostarinen12:29
Line 4L. Kunin7:29N. Gregor8:21J. Studnicka7:45
Pair 1S. Jones17:03N. Mikkola18:12
Pair 2G. Forsling17:13A. Ekblad13:42
Pair 3J. Petry12:23U. Balinskis12:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.7, FLA 3.0 | STL 6, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | STL 24.3, FLA 28.9 | STL 32, FLA 29 |
| Win chance | FLA 55% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.7 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.9 | 8 | 0.52 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.6 | 4 | 0.87 | 3 | 22% | 2 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 2 | 0.52 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 3 | 14% | 1 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 7 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.