Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
STL1
LAK2
LAK beat STL 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.45 expected goals to 2.95. T. Moore had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Forsberg stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Team Stats
STLLAK
24Shots on goal26
2.95Expected goals2.45
64Shot attempts50
205v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play1/3
15Hits26
14Blocked shots23
11Penalty minutes11
16Giveaways19
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.95 xGLAK 2.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:21 | 2:23 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:13 | 2:16 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:31 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:38 | 2:17 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:24 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:20 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:08 | 2:27 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 2:31 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:16 | 2:16 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:01 | 1:26 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:04 |
| T. Lindstein | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 61:56 | OT loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 2:59 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 2:18 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:56 | 2:11 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:16 |
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:36 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:52 | 0:39 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:41 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:06 | 0:01 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5:36 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:30 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 2:30 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:09 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:48 | 0:10 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 61:56 | Win |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1R. Thomas15:39D. Holloway14:47J. Snuggerud14:10
Line 2P. Buchnevich13:31J. Kyrou13:39J. Neighbours12:54
Line 3J. Berggren16:19O. Stenberg14:27D. Dvorsky12:41
Line 4A. Toropchenko8:13P. Suter9:18J. Finley7:15
Pair 1P. Broberg18:48L. Mailloux18:42
Pair 2C. Parayko20:12T. Lindstein15:59
LAK
Line 1A. Kopitar17:32A. Panarin17:07A. Kempe15:36
Line 2Q. Byfield16:29A. Laferriere15:35T. Moore14:48
Line 3S. Laughton11:51J. Wright11:25J. Armia12:01
Line 4M. Joseph8:32A. Turcotte6:38T. Ward5:36
Pair 1D. Doughty17:45B. Dumoulin17:38
Pair 2J. Edmundson17:19B. Clarke17:15
Pair 3C. Ceci14:56M. Anderson16:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.8, LAK 2.9 | STL 1, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 24.5, LAK 27.5 | STL 24, LAK 26 |
| Win chance | LAK 52% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Panarin | 3.0 | 0 | 1.19 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.7 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.6 | 5 | 0.90 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.6 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.4 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.3 | 6 | 0.54 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.2 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.6 | 4 | 0.91 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Wright | 1.2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL T. Lindstein | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Joseph | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL J. Finley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL J. Holl | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.