STL beat NJD 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.68 expected goals to 3.12. NJD outshot STL 32 to 20. D. Holloway led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Hughes had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. J. Binnington stopped 32 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 0:09STLR. Thomas0.11 xG
- 1st 6:23STLD. Holloway0.12 xG
- 1st 16:05STLD. Holloway0.24 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.68 xGNJD 3.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:34 |
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 21:30 | 3:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:54 | 2:58 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:30 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:54 | 1:10 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:35 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:55 | 2:58 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:27 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:07 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:28 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 2:30 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:25 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:24 | 3:17 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 24:39 | 0:35 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:38 | 1:44 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:42 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:27 | 4:48 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 4:25 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 4:24 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 1:39 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 1:12 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 4:21 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 15:41 | 1:36 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:44 | 1:26 |
| S. Bowers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:09 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 | 1:39 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:43 | 4:21 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 59:53 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.9, NJD 3.3 | STL 3, NJD 0 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.5, NJD 31.5 | STL 20, NJD 32 |
| Win chance | NJD 57% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 7 | 1.14 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 5 | 1.01 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.7 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.5 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 0 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.6 | 5 | 0.34 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.6 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD N. Foote | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD S. Bowers | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.7 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.