Game Recap: STL 2, NJD 3 (OT), November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

STL2

Final/OTWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

NJD3

NJD beat STL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.23 expected goals to 2.10. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Meier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Markstrom stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
STL	2	0	0	0	2
NJD	1	1	0	1	3

1st 2:16STLC. Fowler0.01 xG
1st 11:02NJDT. Meier0.10 xG
1st 14:37STLR. ThomasPP0.10 xG
2nd 8:49NJDN. HischierPP0.21 xG
OT 2:58NJDS. Nemec0.23 xG

Team Stats

STLNJD

23Shots on goal29

2.10Expected goals2.23

52Shot attempts59

145v5 shots on goal24

1/4Power play1/2

15Hits26

14Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways11

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.10 xGNJD 2.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL22 on goal, 2 scored

NJD29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:48	4:11
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:06	4:12
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	1	3	2	+1	2	13:38	0:17
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:12	4:24
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	16:59	2:34
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:19	2:26
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:08	2:22
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:32	3:58
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:26	2:14
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	13:29	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	11:28	0:15
C. Fowler	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	22:57	4:15
L. Mailloux	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	11:24	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	26:14	0:33
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	21:23	2:26
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	21:18	0:23
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	29	26	3	.897	62:31	OT loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	2	3	4	1	1	+2	0	21:17	2:51
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	6	3	1	+1	0	21:29	2:51
P. Cotter	LW	0	1	1	2	4	1	-1	0	12:25	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:15	2:51
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:10	2:51
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:40	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	14:58	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	13:31	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:24	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:50	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:27	0:00
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	7:26	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	26:45	1:00
S. Nemec	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	24:19	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	2	21:18	1:51
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:57	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	-1	0	16:30	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	12:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	23	21	2	.913	62:58	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1B. Schenn14:25P. Suter14:29J. Snuggerud12:12

Line 2P. Buchnevich12:07R. Thomas13:33J. Kyrou12:34

Line 3O. Sundqvist10:33N. Walker11:40M. Joseph11:31

Line 4D. Dvorsky11:05D. Holloway10:53J. Neighbours11:34

Pair 1P. Broberg21:00C. Parayko17:56

Pair 2J. Faulk17:51T. Tucker11:56

Pair 3C. Fowler17:50L. Mailloux11:16

NJD

Line 1T. Meier16:25J. Bratt15:13N. Hischier14:50

Line 2O. Palat13:04D. Mercer14:43A. Gritsyuk12:37

Line 3C. Brown12:21C. Glass11:08P. Cotter11:34

Line 4S. Noesen9:27J. Lammikko7:26L. Glendening7:44

Pair 1S. Nemec22:06L. Hughes20:50

Pair 2D. Hamilton14:54J. Siegenthaler15:00

Pair 3B. Dillon13:06C. White11:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.0, NJD 3.1	STL 2, NJD 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	STL 25.1, NJD 28.2	STL 23, NJD 29
Win chance	NJD 52%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.0	6	0.75	2	32%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	3	0.59	1	15%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	2	0.66	0	29%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	4	0.89	3	32%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	1	0.96	0	26%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.0	4	0.42	0	16%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.0	1	0.60	0	23%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	0	0.60	1	8%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	2	0.56	0	26%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	4	0.46	0	9%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	1	0.67	1	24%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.6	1	0.44	0	17%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	2	0.86	1	22%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.6	0	0.40	0	9%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	1	0.44	0	17%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	0	0.53	0	20%	0
STL P. Suter	1.5	1	0.43	0	20%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	2	0.44	1	10%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.5	1	0.39	0	9%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.4	0	0.39	0	17%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.49	2	7%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	1	0.49	0	23%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.2	1	0.28	0	12%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	0	0.29	0	15%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	1	0.29	0	10%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	0	0.33	0	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	2	0.25	1	14%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.26	1	13%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	1	0.17	0	3%	0
STL L. Mailloux	0.9	2	0.21	1	5%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	1	0.29	0	9%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.7	2	0.16	0	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.25	0	5%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	3	0.15	0	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.13	0	8%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.