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Game Recap
STL4
Final/OTThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night
NJD5

NJD beat STL 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.97 expected goals to 3.09. A. Mantha led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Johnston had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.4. C. Hellebuyck stopped 28 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
STL01304
NJD13015
  1. 1st 7:34NJDL. Hughes0.04 xG
  2. 2nd 12:02NJDA. Mantha0.20 xG
  3. 2nd 16:04STLR. ThomasPP0.18 xG
  4. 2nd 18:00NJDJ. Boqvist0.13 xG
  5. 2nd 18:19NJDA. Mantha0.15 xG
  6. 3rd 11:46STLM. McTavish0.23 xG
  7. 3rd 14:36STLP. Broberg0.04 xG
  8. 3rd 14:54STLD. Dvorsky0.14 xG
  9. OT 1:26NJDJ. Bratt0.30 xG

Team Stats

STLNJD
32Shots on goal36
3.09Expected goals3.97
51Shot attempts67
245v5 shots on goal28
1/3Power play0/3
16Hits18
16Blocked shots8
11Penalty minutes21
15Giveaways13
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.09 xGNJD 3.97 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTNJD goal, 7:34NJD goal, 12:02STL goal, 16:04NJD goal, 18:00NJD goal, 18:19STL goal, 11:46STL goal, 14:36STL goal, 14:54NJD goal, 1:26

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL32 on goal, 4 scored
NJD36 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. McTavishC1124200217:373:20
R. ThomasC101400-2220:573:49
J. NeighboursLW011031+2515:142:37
C. McMichaelLW011000-1013:310:58
D. DvorskyRW101210+1012:361:16
J. SnuggerudRW000211-1020:004:12
P. BuchnevichLW000102+1016:081:14
D. HollowayLW000310-2016:040:56
A. KaskimakiC0001120014:260:00
P. SuterC000000-1012:370:00
A. ToropchenkoRW000122-1012:000:00
R. JohnstonLW000440-109:330:00
P. BrobergD112301-1028:224:03
C. ParaykoD0113030019:470:00
J. BarronD0112100216:190:11
A. JiricekD0112000013:310:35
C. FowlerD000002-1020:040:44
B. CarloD000002-1019:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Binnington36315.86161:26OT loss
J. Hofer000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. ManthaRW2133100013:372:22
J. HughesC022600+2020:133:18
J. BrattLW112220+3017:353:07
E. RodriguesC0111200015:151:02
J. BoqvistC1011100012:060:22
N. HischierC0002120018:023:03
C. BrownRW000110-1017:453:11
A. GritsyukRW000221+1017:141:38
L. EvangelistaRW0005000014:562:36
T. MeierRW000630+11713:212:37
C. GlassC000000-1012:230:16
A. LombardiC0000110210:590:00
L. HughesD112210+1026:473:23
B. PesceD022112+1022:220:18
D. HamiltonD011110+1020:582:37
J. SiegenthalerD0000010018:060:10
J. KovacevicD0001110214:390:00
D. ChisholmD0002000013:390:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck32284.87561:00Win
J. Allen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas15:28J. Snuggerud15:42D. Holloway14:13
Line 2M. McTavish13:28A. Kaskimaki12:51C. McMichael11:06
Line 3P. Buchnevich11:46D. Dvorsky10:56J. Neighbours12:18
Line 4R. Johnston9:33P. Suter9:27A. Toropchenko9:24
Pair 1B. Carlo16:28P. Broberg19:39
Pair 2C. Parayko16:32J. Barron15:24
Pair 3C. Fowler16:44A. Jiricek12:56

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt13:05J. Hughes15:44A. Gritsyuk14:39
Line 2N. Hischier12:01L. Evangelista12:14T. Meier10:03
Line 3E. Rodrigues11:24J. Boqvist11:44A. Mantha10:55
Line 4C. Brown12:40A. Lombardi10:55C. Glass10:19
Pair 1L. Hughes18:26B. Pesce18:17
Pair 2D. Hamilton17:00J. Siegenthaler16:31
Pair 3J. Kovacevic14:39D. Chisholm13:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5-114-1106Over
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+130-1651Under
STL D. Holloway2.5+148-1903Over
NJD J. Bratt2.5+154-1962Under
STL J. Snuggerud2.5+135-1752Under
NJD L. Hughes2.5+130-1602Under
STL M. McTavish2.5+144-1764Over
NJD N. Hischier2.5+130-1552Under
NJD T. Meier2.5-145+1206Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-174+1372Over
NJD C. Brown1.5+110-1401Under
STL C. McMichael1.5+125-1350Under
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5-124-1051Under
STL J. Neighbours1.5+155-1550Under
NJD L. Evangelista1.5-170+1365Over
STL P. Broberg1.5+110-1253Over
STL P. Buchnevich1.5+115-1431Under
STL R. Thomas1.5+130-1454Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSTL 2.9, NJD 3.4STL 4, NJD 5
Total goals6.29
Shots on goalSTL 24.1, NJD 30.9STL 32, NJD 36
Win chanceNJD 58%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.361.14237%0
NJD T. Meier3.060.63030%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.510.52112%0
NJD L. Hughes2.420.66213%1
STL D. Holloway2.430.74025%0
STL J. Snuggerud2.220.72027%0
NJD L. Evangelista2.250.68020%0
STL M. McTavish2.240.60224%1
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.220.55022%0
NJD N. Hischier2.120.74030%0
NJD J. Bratt2.020.86224%1
NJD E. Rodrigues1.810.43116%0
STL R. Thomas1.640.93125%1
NJD A. Lombardi1.600.33014%0
STL P. Broberg1.530.51210%1
STL C. McMichael1.500.50119%0
NJD A. Mantha1.530.55321%2
STL P. Buchnevich1.410.53020%0
STL A. Kaskimaki1.410.26012%0
STL C. Parayko1.330.2917%0
NJD B. Pesce1.310.2725%0
STL A. Jiricek1.320.2418%0
STL J. Neighbours1.300.47119%0
NJD C. Brown1.210.44017%0
NJD C. Glass1.200.29014%0
STL J. Barron1.120.2917%0
STL P. Suter1.100.33014%0
STL B. Carlo1.100.1503%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.010.26112%1
STL D. Dvorsky1.020.21111%1
STL A. Toropchenko0.910.2008%0
STL C. Fowler0.900.3806%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.810.1903%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.820.1803%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.800.2303%0
STL R. Johnston0.440.1304%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.