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Game Recap
STL4
NSH1
STL beat NSH 4-1, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 1.80. D. Holloway led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Hofer stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| NSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 6:04STLJ. FaulkPP0.09 xG
- 1st 18:16STLJ. Neighbours0.26 xG
- 2nd 18:50STLJ. Kyrou0.02 xG
- 2nd 19:59NSHB. Skjei0.11 xG
- 3rd 13:45STLJ. Kyrou0.22 xG
Team Stats
STLNSH
21Shots on goal23
2.35Expected goals1.80
45Shot attempts52
165v5 shots on goal19
1/4Power play0/2
25Hits31
17Blocked shots17
18Penalty minutes33
5Giveaways14
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.35 xGNSH 1.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:11 | 3:55 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:12 | 3:51 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13:05 | 1:28 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 5:34 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 3:50 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 4:13 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:00 | 3:31 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:03 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:55 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 4:27 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:41 | 3:21 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:02 | 5:11 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 1:11 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:20 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 11 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:06 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 3:04 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 3:05 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 3:07 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:51 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 16:08 | 0:53 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:52 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:50 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11:55 | 0:03 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:03 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 7:03 | 0:03 |
| B. Skjei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:32 | 2:01 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:56 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:03 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:03 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.0, NSH 2.9 | STL 4, NSH 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.5, NSH 29.0 | STL 21, NSH 23 |
| Win chance | STL 50% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.6 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 0 | 0.84 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.3 | 4 | 0.73 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 3 | 0.64 | 3 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.0 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.6 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.