Game Recap: STL 2, OTT 1, December 6, 2025

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Game Recap

STL2

FinalSat, Dec 6, 2025Every game that night

OTT1

STL beat OTT 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.96 expected goals to 4.44. OTT outshot STL 42 to 20. J. Neighbours led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Zetterlund had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Hofer stopped 41 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	1	1	2
OTT	0	0	1	1

2nd 17:36STLJ. Neighbours0.51 xG
3rd 0:12STLJ. Neighbours0.25 xG
3rd 15:39OTTF. ZetterlundPP0.35 xG

Team Stats

STLOTT

20Shots on goal42

1.96Expected goals4.44

37Shot attempts80

195v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play1/7

22Hits25

21Blocked shots10

18Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways9

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 1.96 xGOTT 4.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL19 on goal, 2 scored

OTT42 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Neighbours	LW	2	0	2	4	4	1	+2	4	15:15	1:14
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	20:47	1:03
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	19:44	0:51
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	2	14:08	1:16
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	4	19:10	0:51
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	2	17:05	1:16
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	15:32	0:57
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:46	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:36	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	11:10	0:53
A. Kaskimaki	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:39	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:53	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	4	1	4	+1	2	25:35	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	25:04	1:02
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	24:07	0:07
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	21:55	1:05
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:40	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	42	41	1	.976	59:49	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	6	4	0	-2	0	18:52	5:40
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	2	18:35	5:45
S. Halliday	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	11:12	4:51
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	4	1	2	-2	2	23:24	6:40
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	22:22	6:32
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	21:26	6:12
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	20:32	6:07
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:59	1:18
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:25	0:03
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:56	5:35
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:04	0:06
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	1:53	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	6	0	2	-1	0	31:04	8:37
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	21:18	3:59
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	14:57	0:06
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	14:46	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:10	0:09
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	20	18	2	.900	57:55	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas13:12P. Buchnevich13:39J. Neighbours13:09

Line 2B. Schenn12:14D. Holloway14:15N. Bjugstad12:02

Line 3M. Joseph11:57P. Suter11:45D. Dvorsky10:17

Line 4O. Sundqvist8:42A. Kaskimaki7:39

Pair 1P. Broberg17:03C. Parayko15:45

Pair 2C. Fowler17:48L. Mailloux12:02

Pair 3J. Faulk15:26M. Kessel8:37

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson12:47D. Cozens14:06D. Perron8:21

Line 2M. Amadio13:58R. Greig13:22C. Giroux10:56

Line 3T. Stützle13:47F. Zetterlund11:57B. Tkachuk13:09

Line 4N. Cousins9:31S. Halliday6:14H. Hodgson1:53

Pair 1J. Sanderson20:03J. Spence17:19

Pair 2N. Jensen12:21N. Matinpalo9:17

Pair 3T. Kleven13:30A. Zub13:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.8, OTT 2.8	STL 2, OTT 1
Total goals	5.6	3
Shots on goal	STL 24.2, OTT 26.5	STL 20, OTT 42
Win chance	OTT 51%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	3	0.79	0	31%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.5	0	0.71	0	30%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	3	0.83	0	28%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	2	0.62	0	23%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	4	0.95	0	29%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	6	0.66	0	11%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.0	1	0.62	0	23%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	0	0.70	1	24%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	6	0.38	1	17%	1
STL N. Bjugstad	1.6	0	0.31	0	15%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	1	0.91	0	22%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	2	0.63	1	21%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	0	0.56	1	21%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.6	1	0.40	0	8%	0
STL P. Suter	1.5	1	0.44	1	19%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.4	3	0.49	0	20%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	1	0.44	0	21%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	2	0.38	0	15%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	4	0.30	0	16%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.3	0	0.35	0	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	4	0.36	0	8%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	4	0.52	2	23%	2
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.48	0	8%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.2	4	0.44	0	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	1	0.21	0	4%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.32	0	11%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.30	0	6%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.0	0	0.17	0	3%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.0	3	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
OTT S. Halliday	0.9	2	0.15	1	6%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.33	0	10%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	0.7	1	0.16	0	7%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.5	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.