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Game Recap
STL7
FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
OTT2

STL beat OTT 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.64 expected goals to 1.83. STL outshot OTT 26 to 17. M. McTavish led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. McTavish had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Hofer stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
STL1247
OTT0112
  1. 1st 14:28STLP. SuterSH0.21 xG
  2. 2nd 13:20STLJ. Neighbours0.05 xG
  3. 2nd 17:52OTTC. Giroux0.13 xG
  4. 2nd 18:25STLM. McTavish0.20 xG
  5. 3rd 7:54STLP. Suter0.03 xG
  6. 3rd 14:46STLJ. Neighbours0.17 xG
  7. 3rd 15:33STLM. McTavishPP0.07 xG
  8. 3rd 16:32STLA. Jiricek0.04 xG
  9. 3rd 18:33OTTF. ZetterlundPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

STLOTT
26Shots on goal17
3.64Expected goals1.83
53Shot attempts42
195v5 shots on goal12
1/3Power play1/4
18Hits16
16Blocked shots12
13Penalty minutes11
17Giveaways17
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.64 xGOTT 1.83 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdSTL goal, 14:28STL goal, 13:20OTT goal, 17:52STL goal, 18:25STL goal, 7:54STL goal, 14:46STL goal, 15:33STL goal, 16:32OTT goal, 18:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL25 on goal, 7 scored
OTT18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
P. BuchnevichLW033102+2018:232:59
M. McTavishC213611+2015:292:37
P. SuterC213430+3015:210:41
J. NeighboursLW202312+2016:051:42
C. McMichaelLW022000+1014:242:46
R. ThomasC0111110017:531:56
D. HollowayLW011110-1015:572:03
J. BerggrenRW011100+1013:290:00
R. JohnstonLW011140+109:180:00
D. DvorskyRW000100+1016:002:15
J. SnuggerudRW000200+1015:461:42
D. PetersonC000040+158:570:00
C. FowlerD011001+1222:152:42
C. ParaykoD011101+1219:330:13
B. CarloD011011+1218:280:00
A. JiricekD101301+2015:041:46
P. BrobergD000103+3222:060:03
J. BarronD000023+2018:280:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Hofer17152.88259:12Win
J. Binnington000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC011120-1022:034:16
S. PintoC011110-3018:183:37
D. BathersonRW011110-1017:444:15
C. GirouxRW101200-2016:593:13
S. HallidayC011000-2014:324:37
F. ZetterlundLW101400-2012:551:55
D. CozensC000130-1017:234:13
A. BurakovskyLW0000100014:553:35
M. AmadioRW000010-4014:120:00
R. GreigC0001110014:081:42
W. FoegeleLW0001110211:120:00
N. CousinsC0000200010:260:00
T. ChabotD000102+1027:493:27
C. YakemchukD000204-5022:254:27
J. SpenceD000101-1220:490:03
T. KlevenD000013-3019:320:00
H. StanleyD0001100211:500:00
J. DonovanD000010-159:140:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Ersson26197.73158:53Loss
L. Ullmark000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1D. Holloway13:54J. Snuggerud14:01R. Thomas13:42
Line 2J. Neighbours12:00D. Dvorsky12:29P. Buchnevich10:13
Line 3J. Berggren11:41C. McMichael9:53M. McTavish11:33
Line 4R. Johnston8:39D. Peterson8:57P. Suter9:03
Pair 1C. Fowler16:11B. Carlo14:45
Pair 2P. Broberg18:11A. Jiricek13:18
Pair 3J. Barron14:16C. Parayko14:54

OTT

Line 1C. Giroux12:46M. Amadio12:47S. Pinto10:40
Line 2D. Batherson12:50T. Stützle14:44W. Foegele10:40
Line 3D. Cozens12:01A. Burakovsky10:50R. Greig10:10
Line 4N. Cousins9:12S. Halliday9:22F. Zetterlund10:27
Pair 1T. Chabot19:14J. Spence18:53
Pair 2C. Yakemchuk17:30T. Kleven15:46
Pair 3H. Stanley10:36J. Donovan9:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 21 overs hit (24%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
OTT D. Batherson2.5+160-1751Under
OTT D. Cozens2.5+125-1401Under
STL D. Holloway2.5+130-1501Under
STL J. Snuggerud2.5+100-1252Under
OTT T. Stützle2.5+112-1201Under
OTT A. Burakovsky1.5+130–0Under
STL A. Jiricek1.5-125-1053Over
OTT C. Giroux1.5+100-1202Over
STL C. McMichael1.5-108-1150Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.5+105-1302Over
STL D. Dvorsky1.5+120-1401Under
STL J. Neighbours1.5+145-2003Over
OTT J. Spence1.5+100-1201Under
STL M. McTavish1.5-160+1306Over
STL P. Buchnevich1.5+115-1251Under
OTT R. Greig1.5+106-1301Under
STL R. Thomas1.5-110-1101Under
OTT S. Halliday1.5+130-1800Under
OTT S. Pinto1.5-140+1151Under
OTT T. Chabot1.5-178+1601Under
OTT W. Foegele1.5-105-1251Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSTL 3.3, OTT 2.9STL 7, OTT 2
Total goals6.29
Shots on goalSTL 24.1, OTT 27.8STL 26, OTT 17
Win chanceSTL 55%STL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT D. Cozens2.510.62024%0
OTT T. Chabot2.410.65014%0
STL D. Holloway2.310.86128%0
OTT T. Stützle2.310.97131%0
STL J. Snuggerud2.320.82027%0
OTT D. Batherson2.110.74127%0
STL M. McTavish2.060.61322%2
OTT S. Pinto1.910.59125%0
OTT C. Giroux1.820.62121%1
OTT W. Foegele1.710.35018%0
STL C. McMichael1.700.64223%0
OTT J. Spence1.710.4107%0
OTT R. Greig1.610.44017%0
STL R. Thomas1.611.06129%0
STL P. Buchnevich1.510.66325%0
OTT T. Kleven1.500.2806%0
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.420.2905%0
STL A. Jiricek1.430.2818%1
OTT F. Zetterlund1.340.30113%1
STL C. Parayko1.210.3219%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.210.35017%0
OTT M. Amadio1.200.42019%0
STL P. Suter1.240.40318%2
STL J. Berggren1.210.46119%0
OTT S. Halliday1.200.30111%0
STL J. Neighbours1.230.53222%2
STL P. Broberg1.110.4309%0
OTT A. Burakovsky1.000.41015%0
STL C. Fowler1.000.4919%0
STL B. Carlo0.900.1514%0
STL J. Barron0.800.2307%0
OTT N. Cousins0.800.2108%0
STL R. Johnston0.510.1515%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.